Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120206.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Feb 6 09:15:32 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:44:12 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: apollo 13

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2012 HAS MADE
Wjan.= 58.3,
THAT GIVES FOR 31 MONTH (2011, July) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF
SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*july= 57.2
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
09 - 12.2012
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE
1.. 44 6.. 70 11.. 39 16.. 95э 21.. 69 26.. 30 31.. 46
2.. 57 7.. 70 12.. 32 17.. 87 22.. 67 27.. 40
3.. 74 8.. 64 13.. 44 18.. 78 23.. 70 28.. 28Э
4.. 78 9.. 49 14.. 73 19.. 65 24.. 53 29.. 35
5.. 67 10.. 43 15.. 92 20.. 63 25.. 47 30.. 38

THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, JANUARY
F*jan. = 132.5
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 30.01 - 05.02.2012,
Forecast on 06 - 13.02.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2119, 2120 (09,94.01; 06,28.02.2012)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE AND
LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=037+14/
-15. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT FROM
5 TO 2 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND AVE-
RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=030+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL 30.01 AND 1.02 AND VERY LOW
IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS
OBSERVED 31 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH WERE 4 - TIPE "PAR-
TIAL HALO" II AND III.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X/opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME
03.02 2031 N25W27L057 6 11410 CME

c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N55L114 N30L088 N15L097 N40L116 31.01 2 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - N55L073 N13L068 S02L072 N11L082 02.02 3 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S09L066 S20L050 S28L058 S15L068 03.02 2 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH + N20L327 N10L325 N00L332 N20L330 11.02 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - N31L322 N30L317 N25L324 N28L329 11.02 3 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S20L346 S30L327 S38L329 S21L348 9.02 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 01/23 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS
10.02.

JANUARY 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 FEBRUARY
Wus 076 071 085 085 039 043 037
F10.7 114 117 118 118 111 107 103
шbcg ?2.1 ?2.5 ?2.2 ?2.6 ?2.1 ?1.8 ?1.5 GOES
Sp 330 340 420 420 280 270 170
Nnew 1
IMF + + +/- - - - - ACE
Х>2 3.8х+7 3.6х+6 3.3E+6 3.1х+6 4.8х+6 4.5х+6 1.5х+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 6 2 5 3 5 7 7 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 11 5 5 5 9 10 14 IZMIRAN
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THE BIGGEST SOLAR PROTON EVENT OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE HAS BEGUN
AFTER FLARE э8.7:
Pr (E>10 MeV) - to 23/0530 UT, tm -23/2330 UT - 6310 p.f.u.;

THE PROTON EVENT OF THE CURRENT CYCLE SECOND FOR INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
AFTER FLARE ш1.7:
Pr (E>10 MeV) -to 27/1905 UT, tm-28/2005 UT-796 p.f.u., te-01/06 UT;

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru