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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.08 - 04.09.2011,
Forecast on 24 - 31.10.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2015,2016 (22,71.09; 19,99.10..2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD REMAINED BY 21.09 AT HIGH LEVEL,
HAVING REACHED ON OCTOBER, 20-21th THE GREATEST VALUES FOR THE CURRENT
SOLAR CYCLE THEN HAS STARTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY. ESTIMATED, RATING,
WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
PERIOD WAS MADE W=101+0/-23. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK TILL 23.10
CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT 10 - 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS AMONG WHICH ONLY ONE WAS
THE AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN MIDDLE LEVEL 20-22 SEPTEMBER AND A LOW LEVEL
IN OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 65 CME FROM WHICH 4 WERE
TYPE PARTIAL HALO II AND 2 - HALO (22.10).

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to tm te localization Class е(1-8A) бR RII/IV CME
X-ray opt. J/m-2
20.10 0310 0325 >0344 M1.6/ 2.2E-2 IV/1
21.10 1253 1300 >1308 M1.3/ 7.4E-3 II/1 IV/1
22.10 1000 1118 >1309 N25W77L058 M1.3/SF 1.1E-1 11314 CME/H
to te central part localization l Ч ЗТБД. Fl AR CME
DSF 22/0058 CME/H
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N28L352 N25L342 N20L353 N25L357 23.10 1 КР SOHO SDO....
CH + S20L272 S32L257 S35L270 S24L277 29.10 1 КР SOHO SDO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 5.10/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS ON 23.10.

OCTOBER 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 OCTOBER
Wus 165 155 162 195 207 164 128
F10.7 153 147 147 159 168 164 156
Хbcg В9.8 B8.6 В7.8 В8.6 В9.9 В9.3 В7.6 GOES
Sp 1170 1030 1390 1490 1440 1010 810
Nnew 2 1 3 1 1 1
IMF - - - - - - - ACE
е>2 1.6Е+6 2.2Е+6 1.9Е+6 2.2E+6 1.7Е+6 1.8Е+6 3.8Е+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 3 5 7 6 6 2 2 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 7 3 5 10 8 5 9 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER; SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru