Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20111003.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 3 16:27:49 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:37 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 15

THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2011 HAS MADE
Wsep.= 78.0,
THAT GIVES FOR 27 MONTH (2011, MARCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF
SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*mar.= 36.9
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013

THE MAXIMUM OF 23 SOLAR CYCLE HAS COME IN APRIL 2000 WITH VALUE
OF THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY WOLF'S NUMBER - W*= 120.7
SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE CYCLE IS NOTED IN NOVEMBER 2001 - W*= 115.6
MAXIMUM OF THE RADIO EMISSION ON 10 cm FLUX - F*= 197.2
HAS COME IN FEBRUARY 2002.
THE 23 SOLAR CYCLE MINIMUM - DECEMBER 2008 with W*=1.7.
The most probable height according to all available information will make
current 24 cycles of solar activity Wmax = 50 - 70.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011,
SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE
1.. 85 6.. 58 11.. 61 16..124М 21.. 70 26.. 73
2.. 88 7.. 47 12.. 90 17..104 22.. 71 27.. 67
3.. 91 8.. 35м 13.. 94 18.. 93 23.. 59 28.. 71
4.. 68 9.. 47 14..110 19.. 92 24.. 75 29.. 83
5.. 74 10.. 52 15..124М 20.. 80 25.. 79 30.. 75

THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, SEPTEMBER
F*sep. = 133.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 26.09 - 02.10.2011,
Forecast on 03 - 10.10.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2115 (22,71.09.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE
CONFIDENT AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=60+18/-13.
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE ARE FROM 6 TO 5 SUNSPOT
GROUPS, ONE OF THEM IS BIG, FLARE-ACTIVE, BUT AFTER 02.10 IT SIZE IS
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=050+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN MIDDLE LEVEL AT SEPTEMBER 26, 27, 30 AND OCTOBER,
1, 2, AND A LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 42
CME FROM WHICH 2 WERE TYPE HALO.

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to tm te коо-ты балл Е(1-8A) АО RII/IV CME
рент оп J/m-2 Mгц
26.09 0506 0508 0657 N13E34L282 M4.0/1В 1.4E-2 11302 IV/1
26.09 1431 1446 1536 N14E30L282 2В/М2.6 2.1E-2 11302
28.09 1324 1328 1341 N13E03L282 M1.2/1N 2.3E-3 11302 CME
23.09 0236 0200 0239 N25W63L057 M1.6/1N 1.6E-2 11305 CME
30.09 1852 1806 1935 N08E06L248 1F/M1.0 8.1E-3 11305 II/1
01.10 0856 0859 1039 N10W06L248 M1.2/1N 2.9E-2 11305 II/2 II/1 IV/2
02.10 0037 0050 0137 N09W12L248 M3.9/1N 2.8E-2 11305 CME
02.10 1719 1723 1758 N09W25L248 M1.3/SF 2.8E-3 11305

to te коорд.центра l в град. Fl AО CME
DSF 27/0125 0315 N60E13L281 9 13305
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S10L288 S23L281 S33L291 S22L304 1.10 5 SDO, SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 26/12 ON 28.09/05 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" AND ON 1.10./10-20 UT "-"
SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. + / - THE EARTH SHOULD PASS
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER 07.10.


СЕНТЯБРЬ 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 ОКТЯБРЬ
Wus 103 082 116 099 089 086 092
F10.7 148 139 133 137 138 137 131
Хbcg С1.4 B5.2 В3.8 В4.0 В4.0 В5.6 В4.9 GOES
Sp 1170 1110 1240 920 970 950 760
Nnew
IMF -/ + + ± - - -/+ - ACE
е>2 8.1Е+6 2.1Е+7 1.8Е+7 3.8Е+7 7.5E+7 2.2Е+7 4.7Е+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 70 30 24 15 8 9 12 Ар
Dst -118 -103 -64 -42 -36 -37 -36 KIOTO
Amsc 41 20 18 12 11 16 15 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT 30.09 AND 2.10.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT
EXPECTED

THE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G4, Ams=80, dur.= 27 h.) IT IS REGISTERED ON
SEPTEMBER, 26-27th ACCORDING DATA OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE GEOMAGNETIC
OBSERVATORIES. ON IZMIRAN DATA THIS MAGNETIC STORM WAS MODERATED (G3,
Ams=58, dur. = 18 h.). TWO MORE MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS 28.09 (G1, Ams=34,
dur.= 18 h.) AND 29.09 (G0, Ams=24, dur. = 15 h.) ACCORDING DATA TO GEO-
MAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE.
ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA
THIS WAS ONE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ON SEPTEMBER, 27-28th (G1, Ams=24, dur.
= 21 h.). 29.09 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE ACTIVE, AND
IN OTHER DAYS
UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.
NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE 20 % PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM DE-
VELOPMENT ON OCTOBER, 4-5th FROM FLARE М3.9 2.10 WITH CME DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE EARTH ACCORDING TO STEREO B AND SOHO DATA.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
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