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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 19 - 25.09.2011,
Forecast on 26.09 - 03.10.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2114, 2015 (26,45.08; 22,71.09.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE
AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=061+16/-09.
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE ARE FROM 7 TO 5 SUN-
SPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH THE BIG SIZES. AT ONE OF THEM THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE HAS EXCEEDED 1000 m.v.h.:
AR11302 (N11L282, Spmax=1300 m.v.h.).

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH
AND AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=080+
10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON A LOW LEVEL. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 77
CME, WHICH OF THEM 4 HAD A TYPE "HALO IV", 1 - PARTIAL HALO III AND 4
- PARTIAL HALO II.

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to tm te localization Class Е(1-8A) АR RII/IV CME
X-ray opt. J/m-2
21.09 1204 1207 >1209 n13e90L282 M1.8/ 3.4E-2 11302
22.09 0953 1000 >1009 n13e82L282 M1.1/ 7.6E-3 11302
22.09 1029 1101 1227 N13E78L282 X1.4/2N 4.5E-1 11302 II/2 IV/2 CME
23.09 0236 0200 0239 N25W63L057 M1.6/1N 1.6E-2 11295 CME
23.09 2154 2215 >2234 N23W73L057 M1.6/1N 3.0E-2 11295
23.09 2248 2356 >0004 n11e52L282 M1.9/ 1.3E-2 11302
24.09 0921 0940 1010 N12E60L282 X1.9/2B 1.1E-1 11302 II/2 IV/3 CME
24.09 1233 1320 2240 N15E56L282 M7.1/1B 2.9E-1 11302 CME
24.09 1719 1725 >1731 n26w80L057 M3.1/ 1.6E-2 11295
24.09 1759 1815 >1824 n15e50L282 M2.8/ 3.3E-2 11302
24.09 1909 1921 >1941 n15e49L282 M3.0/ 4.6E-2 11302
24.09 2029 2036 >2042 n15e48L282 M5.8/ 2.4E-2 11302
24.09 2238 2358 0015 S29W68L~034 M1.0/SF 1.1E-2 11303
25.09 0227 0233 0302 N12E49L282 M4.4/SF 1.4E-2 11302
25.09 0431 0450 0541 N11E47L282 M7.4/2N 9.6E-2 11302 IV/2 CME
25.09 0846 0849 >0852 N15E45L282 M3.1/1N 5.9E-3 11302
25.09 0925 0935 >0953 S27W73L034 M1.5/SF 2.1E-2 11303
25.04 1400 1531 1843 N16E43L282 /2B 11302
1526 1533 >1538 M3.7/ 1.6E-2 11302 CME
1651 1658 >1709 M2.2/ 1.7E-2 11302 CME
Last optical flare has united 2 x-ray burst.
to te central part localization l в град. Fl AR CME
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 9.09/21 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 30.09.

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SEPTEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 SEPTEMBER
Wus 128 101 108 086 090 088 108
F10.7 141 144 144 151 158 190 169
Хbcg В8.0 B7.1 С1.0 С1.4 С1.3 С1.6 C2.7 GOES
Sp 730 600 670 970 1520 1930 1400
Nnew
IMF - - - - - - - ACE
е>2 8.9Е+6 7.4Е+6 5.6Е+6 3.3Е+6 3.2E+6 5.2Е+6 6.8Е+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 3 7 5 3 3 4 4 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 5 8 7 6 5 6 8 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL
OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK IN THE END OF DAYS 26.09 TO THE EARTH WILL APPROACH DISTURBANCE
COMPLEXE STRUCTURE FROM 2 COOPERATING CME OF TYPE "HALO". PROBABILITY OF THE
MAGNETIC STORM ON SEPTEMBER, 26-27th NOT LESS THAN 60%. ON SEPTEMBER, 28-29th
T0 THE EARTH DISTURBANCES FROM FLARES 25.09 WILL COME. CONTINUATION OF THE
MAGNETIC STORM CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS
WILL DEPEND FROM FLARE ACTIVITY OF SUNSPOT GROUP AR11302. AT DATE OF THE
FORECAST WRITING AFTER SEPTEMBER, 29th GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE
QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK IN THE END OF DAY AT SEPTEMBER, 26 DOUBLE CME MUST ARRIVAL TO EARTH's
ENVIRONEMENT AND MAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED WITH POSSIBILITY 70% (MAJOR POSSIBI-
LITY). IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru