Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110801.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Aug 1 18:42:22 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:16 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: volcano pele

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2011 HAS MADE
Wjuly =43.9,
THAT GIVES FOR 25 MONTH (2011, JANUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF
SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*jan. = 31.0
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013
(Date of approach of a maximum of a current cycle close to a reality can
be defined only after 18 - 24 months of its development).

THE MAXIMUM OF 23 SOLAR CYCLE HAS COME IN APRIL 2000 WITH VALUE
OF THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY WOLF'S NUMBER - W*= 120.7
SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE CYCLE IS NOTED IN NOVEMBER 2001 - W*= 115.6
MAXIMUM OF THE RADIO EMISSION ON 10 cm FLUX - F*= 197.2
HAS COME IN FEBRUARY 2002.
THE OF THE 23 CYCLE MINIMUM - DECEMBER 2008 with W*=1.7.
The most probable height according to all available information will make
current 24 cycles of solar activity Wmax = 50 - 70.
Possible specifications after 28 months of development of a cycle (on the
smoothed values of relative Wolf number).

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011,
JULY ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 38 6.. 23 11.. 51 16.. 50 21.. 41 26.. 29 31.. 67
2.. 30 7.. 28 12.. 49 17.. 63 22.. 37 27.. 43
3.. 28 8.. 43 13.. 46 18.. 78м 23.. 29 28.. 65
4.. 31 9.. 33 14.. 46 19.. 74 24.. 29 29.. 61
5.. 22 10.. 40 15.. 56 20.. 48 25.. 20м 30.. 62

THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, JUNE
F*june. = 95.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25 - 31.07.2011,
Forecast on 01 - 08.08.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2112 2113 (03,01 - 30,22.07.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT CLOSE TO LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=045+32/-27. ON THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 8 AND 3 OF SMALL
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVEL ON JULY, 30th, WHEN IN SUNSPOT GROUP
AR11261 (N16L330, Sp=350 m.v.h) THE LARGE PULSE SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY
CLASS М9.3 WAS OCCURENCED, AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL - ON JULY, 27th, OTHER
DAYS - ON A LOW LEVEL. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 46 CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS FROM THEM 4 (25, 26 AND 28 JULY) WAS OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II"
(90-180 deg.).

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to tm te location Class Е(1-8A) АR Radio II/IV CME Pr
X-ray оp J/m-2
27.07/1548 1607 1640 N20E37L358 M1.1/1N 1.3E-2 11260
30.07/0204 0209 >0212 n15e28L330 M9.3/ 2.0E-2 11261
to te centre location l в град. Fl AО CME
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED :
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
СН - N55L004 N45L349 N28L038 N35L041 28.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 18.07/0230 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 05.08.

JULY 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 JULY
Wus 038 030 054 084 088 101 128
F10.7 087 094 099 107 112 113 119
Хbcg B1.7 B2.7 B4.8 B5.4 B5.0 B3.0 В3.6 GOES
Sp 035 320 380 770 930 1170 1130
Nnew 1 1 2 1
IMF - - - - - - - ACE
е>2 9.2Е+7 7.2Е+7 8.3Е+7 9.0Е+7 8.0E+7 2.0Е+7 1.2Е+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 11 5 3 3 4 17 8 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 10 9 7 9 7 12 11 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE
THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 20/1250 UT UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED
25-29.07.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ON JULY, 30-31th ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM STRETCHED ON TIME (G1, Ams=29, dur.
= 12 h.), HOWEVER ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS THESE
DAYS WERE ONLY UNSETTLED, WITHOUT REACHING PARAMETERS OF THE MAGNETIC STORM.
IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA
http://www.izmiran.ru
WDC STP MOSCOW