Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110725.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 25 16:10:47 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:12 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 18 - 24.07.2011,
Forecast on 25 - 31.07.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2112 2113 (03,01 - 30,22.07.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT CLOSE TO LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=043+33/-18. ON THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 8 AND 3 OF SMALL
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW ONLY JULY 18, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER
DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 56 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM
THEM 2 (20 AND 23 JULY) WAS OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (90-180 deg.).
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to tm te location Class Е(1-8A) АR Radio II/IV CME Pr
X-ray оp J/m-2
to te centre location l в град. Fl AО CME
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED :
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
СН - N10L172 S28L144 S29L147 N02L175 19-20.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
СН - N55L004 N45L349 N28L038 N35L041 28.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 18.07/0230 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 05.08.

ИЮЛЬ 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ИЮЛЬ
Wus 127 096 079 056 054 041 046
F10.7 102 100 100 096 092 088 086
Хbcg B2.4 B2.2 B2.1 B1.8 B1.6 B1.5 В1.4 GOES
Sp 400 660 310 290 180 160 040
Nnew 2 1
IMF + /- - - - - - - ACE
е>2 1.7Е+7 8.2Е+6 4.9Е+7 1.7Е+8 2.2E+8 4.0Е+8 4.7Е+8 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 8 18 21 13 10 8 4 Ар
Dst -17 -23 -24 -30 -22 -24 -12 KIOTO
Amsc 7 18 18 10 8 10 7 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE
THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 20/1250 UT UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED
20-24.07.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED
JULY 25-27th ALREADY FROM FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLE.

ON JULY, 19-20th ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM STRETCHED ON TIME (G1, Ams=25, dur.
= 33 ч.), HOWEVER ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS THESE
DAYS WERE ONLY ACTIVE, WITHOUT REACHING PARAMETERS OF THE MAGNETIC STORM.
IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK ON JULY, 28th THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE
SOLAR WIND FROM HIGH-LATITUDE CORONAL HOLE OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (TABLE).
PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM THESE DAYS NO MORE THAN 5 %. IN OTHER
DAYS IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru