Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110711.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 11 16:36:30 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:09 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: с р р с с п п р п п с с с р р р р р п п р р р п п р

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 04 - 10.07.2011,
Forecast on 11 - 18.07.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2112 (03,01.07.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT CLOSE TO LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=029+11/-11. ON THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OF SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=030+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW ONLY JULY 7-8, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER
DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM
THEM 2 WAS OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (90-180 deg.).

------------------------------------------------------------------------
to tm te location Class Е(1-8A) АR Radio II/IV CME Pr
X-ray оp J/m-2
to te коорд.центра l в град. Fl AО CME
DSF 06/ 1052 N25W60L007 23 CME/573km/s
DSF 09/2330 2350 S25E32L268 10 B4.7 11247 CME
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
СН + N28L299 N28L293 N10L310 N20L319 09.07 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.....
СН + S15L284 S32L262 S38L264 S15L289 12.07 2 KP, SDO, SOHO.....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 9.07/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 18.07.

JULY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JULY
Wus 044 030 036 042 065 055 067
F10.7 085 085 085 086 086 086 091
Хbcg B1.0 B1.0 А9.9 B1.1 B1.1 B1.1 В1.7 GOES
Sp 165 130 150 150 110 070 090
Nnew 1 3 1 1
IMF - - - - - -\+ + ACE
е>2 1.1Е+6 5.1Е+6 2.0Е+7 4.6Е+7 5.9E+7 6.5Е+6 1.6Е+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 12 13 8 6 8 13 12 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 11 19 11 11 9 9 8 IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE
THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 07/1415 UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED
7-8.07.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UP TO STANDARD OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 4-5.07
(G1, Ams=29, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE DATA, AND (G0, Ams=24, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. THIS
MAGNETIC STORM WAS THE RESULT OF THE EARTH PASSING THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED
STREAM FROM NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE OF NORTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WILL MOST PROBABLY REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF GROWTH DISTURBANCE OF THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ON
JULY 12 BECAUSE OF DOUBLE INFLUENCE OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CORONAL HOLES AND DISTURBANCE FROM FILAMENT EJECTION ON
JULY 9, CME FROM WHICH HAS BEEN DIRECTED TOWARDS THE EARTH. PROBABILITY OF THE
MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 10%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA
http://www.izmiran.ru
WDC STP MOSCOW