Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110718.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 18 11:59:11 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:11 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 11 - 17.07.2011,
Forecast on 18 - 25.07.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2112 (03,01.07.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT CLOSE TO LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=049+12/-12. ON THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 5 AND 6 OF SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW ONLY JULY 11-12, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER
DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM
THEM 2 WAS OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (90-180 deg.).

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON A LOW LEVEL ON JULY, 11-12TH. 13.07 22 FLARES SF
HAVE BEEN REGISTERED, BUT ALL OF THEM WERE "B" X-RAY CLASS. IN OTHER
DAYS FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE
REGISTRED 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
to tm te location Class Е(1-8A) АR Radio II/IV CME Pr
X-ray оp J/m-2
to te коорд.центра l в град. Fl AО CME
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
СН + S15L284 S32L262 S38L264 S15L289 12.07 2 KP, SDO, SOHO...
СН - N33L190 N21L180 N19L185 N28L192 18.07 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
СН - N10L172 S28L144 S29L147 N02L175 19-20.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 9.07/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 18.07.

JULY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 JULY
Wus 072 062 090 079 090 075 101
F10.7 090 092 095 094 094 094 104
Хbcg B1.9 B2.1 B1.8 B1.6 B1.5 B1.5 В2.1 GOES
Sp 290 300 400 265 260 230 280
Nnew 1 2 2 1
IMF + + + + + + + ACE
е>2 1.2Е+7 4.6Е+7 1.6Е+8 1.4Е+8 2.1E+8 9.3Е+7 1.2Е+8 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 15 8 9 9 6 5 4 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 11 9 7 8 5 3 5 IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE
THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 12/1605 UT UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED
12-17.07.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED JULY
18-26th ALREADY FROM FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLE.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK ON JULY, 18-20th THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR
WIND FROM 2 CORONAL HOLES SPECIFIED IN THE TABLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC
STORM IN THESE DAYS NOT LESS THAN 60 %. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS
ARE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA
http://www.izmiran.ru
WDC STP MOSCOW