Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110613.en.txt Дата изменения: Tue Jun 14 17:43:35 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:42:57 2016 Кодировка: Поисковые слова: south pole

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 12.06.2011 ,
Forecast on 13 - 20.06.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2111 (05,06.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD AT FIRST
CONFIDENTLY KEPT AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, BUT BY THE PERIOD END
HAS FALLEN TO THE LOW. RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD HAS MADE W=028+14/-4.
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN GRADUAL REDUCTION OF QUANTITY OF
SUNSPOT GROUPS WITH 5 TO 1 (12.06) WAS OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK A LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LOW AND BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD THE AVERAGE. THE MOST LIKELY THE CALCULATED
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON JUNE, 7th WHEN IN THE
BREAKING UP COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS AR11227+26 PROTON FLARE CLASS
í2.5/2N IS OCCURENSED. LOW FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ON JUNE, 6,
9 And 10th. SOHO CORONOGRAPH, ARE REGISTRED 77 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS,
FROM THEM 1 TYPE "HALO" And 5 - "PARTIAL HALO" II (angular width of
90-180 deg.).
------------------------------------------------------------------------
to tm te location Class å(1-8A) áR Radio II/IV CME Pr
X-ray Ïp J/m-2
07.06 0616 0641 0809 S21W54L042 M2.5/2N 4.4E-2 11226 II/2 IV/2 CME/H Pr
to te localization l × deg. Fl Aï CME
DSF 05/ 0341 N34E37L323 16 CME/pH/490km/s
DSF 06/0441 0900 N25W34L021 12
DSF 12/1342 1443 N09W90L>/=358 CME/ 565km/s
DSF 12/<0123 <1337 N28W63L331
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK FOR LAST WEEK WERE OBSERVED NEXT CORONAL HOLES:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end å end S end W end EE R Observatories
óî + S12L291 S25L271 S33L276 S150L293 14.06 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 11.06/14 UT THE EARTH WAS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 22.06.

JUNE 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 JUNE
Wus 074 067 058 045 046 035 037 016
F10.7 103 100 096 090 088 087 085 085
èbcg B2.1 B2.0 B1.6 B1.3 B1.2 B1.2 џ1.2 џ1.7 GOES
Sp 230 800 440 650 720 540
Nnew 1 1 1
IMF - - - - - - - /+ + ACE
Å>2 1.7å+6 1.1å+7 1.1å+7 1.0E+7 4.4å+7 7.5å+7 5.8å+6 1.2å+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 27 7 8 16 11 7 11 9 áÒ
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 20 10 14 16 14 10 13 11 IZMIRAN
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FOR THE LAST PERIOD IN THE ENVIRONEMENT SPACE 3 PROTON EVENTS ARE
REGISTERED:
Pr> 10 MeV 04/23 max 3.9 pfu 05/0050; the end 05/0205; óíå 04/2145
Pr> 10 MeV 07/0820 max 72.9 pfu 07/1820; the end 08/0735; í2.5
Pr> 10 MeV 11/11 max 3 pfu 11/19; 13/12 end óíå 11/1436

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS
BEGUN 9.06/1410 UT AND IT WAS OBSERVED 09-10.06.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS
NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE ACTIVE IN THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM PROCEEDED (G2, Ams=48, dur.= 18 h.) ACCORDING
OF THE WESTERN OBSERVATORIES DATA AND MINOR (G1, Ams=30, dur. = 18 h.)
ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. GEOMAGNETIC STORM HAS BEGUN WUTH THE SUDDENLY
COMMANSEMENT 04/2045 UT. THIS MAGNETIC STORM HAS GROWN OUT OF DISTURBANCE
FROM FLARE 2.06 ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH, STRENGTHENED BY EARTH PASSAGE OF A
HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLES. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE
NOTED ALSO ON JUNE, 8th BECAUSE OF THE 6-HOURS SUBSTORM NOTED BY ALL
OBSERVATORIES. IN OTHER DAYS OF THE PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED
UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND
UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA
http://www.izmiran.ru
WDC STP MOSCOW