The Study of the Probability of an Asteroid Collision with a Planet by Monte Carlo Method
N. B. Zheleznov
Institute of Applied Astronomy of RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia
Abstract:
The close approach of asteroid (99942) Apophis to the Earth on April 13, 2029, and 2007 WD5 to Mars on January 30, 2008, have been researched taking into account the sets of observations giving maximal estimates of encounter probability. Our estimates of probability obtained by the Monte Carlo method resemble those published on the web site of JPL, NASA.
In the considered examples it is shown that neglecting correlations between orbit parameters in the covariance matrix can lead to poor results for predicted collision probabilities
Key words:
Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Near Earth Objects (NEOs), probability of an asteroid collision with a planet, Monte Carlo method, asteroid (99942) Apophis, close approach, estimates of encounter probability, orbit parameters in the covariance matrix, predicted collision probabilities.