ESO Internal Workshop on
Forecasting Astronomical Observing Conditions

European Southern Observatory, Garching bei MÓÌnchen, Germany

29-30 May, 1997

ESO Council Room

Executive Summary Now Available

Compressed Postcript File

SUMMARY

It is now understood that most future ground based observatories will make use of flexible scheduling tools to select the observing mode best adapted to the observing conditions.

ESO has been conducting a wide survey of existing and potential forecasting techniques and several feasibility studies are close to completion. It is thus time to prepare the specifications of the operational tools and services to be developped for the VLT.

As this work is of interest to the astronomical community at large, external observers/participants are welcome. Some time is also available for additional oral communications. Please forward this message to those of your colleagues which might be interested.

If you plan to attend, please register by E-Mail to Marc Sarazin at least 15 days in advance for conference room reservation. A more detailed agenda will be sent to you then.

Consult the list of speakers and of participants to know whom you will meet there.

PRELIMINARY AGENDA

Thursday 29 May, SESSION I: STATISTICAL METHODS

14h-15h- "Performance analysis of multivariate and Neural Network
methods for the prediction of Temperature and Seeing at 
Astronomical Observatories" (M. Sarazin, ESO)

Thursday 29 May, SESSION II: SATELLITE IMAGERY

15h-16h-"Evaluation of Satellite Derived PWV Measurements - A 
Comparison with Antofagasta Radiosonde and Paranal Ground 
PWV monitor measurements" (A. Erasmus, Uni. of Northern Colorado)

16h-17h- "Development and Evaluation of an Improved Methodology for 
Forecasting Cirrus Cloud Cover and PWV above Paranal and La 
Silla" (A. Erasmus, Uni. of Northern Colorado)

Friday 30 May, SESSION III: NUMERICAL MODELLING

8h30-9h00- "Principles of the Feasibility study of a Meteorological
Prediction Model for ESO observatories in Chile" 
(Pr. A. Speranza,  CRS4 Cagliari)

9h00-9h30- "Comparison of ECMWF and ESO database over the period
1989-1993"   (R. Deidda, CRS4 Cagliari)

9h30-10h00- "Post-processing ECMWF forecast -Kalman Filtering results
at Paranal- " (M. Maroccu, CRS4 Cagliari)

10h00-10h30- "Results of a Limited Area Model on some test cases" 
(Pr. A. Speranza,  CRS4 Cagliari)

10h45-11h30- "Principle of the Feasibility Study for predicting optical 
turbulence from mesoscale meteorological modelling"  
(Dr. J. Vernin, Uni. of Nice)

11h30-12h15- "Modelling optical turbulence over Paranal with Meso-nh: 
the first results" (E. Masciadri, Uni. of Nice)

Friday 30 May, SESSION IV: OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEMS

13h30 "Welcome Words" by Prof. R. Giacconi, ESO Director General

13h30-14h30- "The ECMWF data assimilation and operational forecast
scheme: a user guide" (Dr. Andreas Lanzinger, ECMWF Reading) 

14h30-15h15- "Proposal for a system of operational forecast finalized to
meteorological prediction for ESO observatories in Chile"
(Pr. A. Speranza,  CRS4 Cagliari)

15h15-16h00- "Proposal for an operational forecast of cloud cover and
precipitable water vapour over ESO observatories in Chile"
(Dr. A. Erasmus, Uni. of Northern Colorado)

SESSION V: DISCUSSION

TBD