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: http://www.cosmos.ru/galeev/abs_eng/e030618.htm
Дата изменения: Fri May 30 14:42:17 2003 Дата индексирования: Tue Oct 2 07:27:31 2012 Кодировка: Поисковые слова: m 17 |
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"Influence
of solar activity on wheat prices in the medieval England Dr. L. Poustilnik, Dr. G. Yomdin (Sea of Galilee Astrophysical Observatory, Jordan Valley College; Israel Space Weather Center, Israel Space Agency & Tel Aviv University, Israel ) Abstract: Our
study shows that, as the result of the nonlinear causal links between
solar activity-cosmic ray flux-cloudiness condition-wheat production-wheat
price, bursts and slumps of wheat prices could take place at extreme
states (maximums or minimums) of solar activity cycles. We present a
conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to
weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations, and compare the
expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the
Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the
intervals between wheat price bursts during years 1249-1703 frome data of
Prof. Rogers with statistical properties of the intervals between
extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. We
show that statistical properties of these two samples are similar, both
for characteristics of the distributions and for the histograms of the
distributions. In the next step, we analyze a
direct link between wheat prices and solar activity in the 17th Century,
for which wheat prices and solar activity/cosmic ray intensity data (derived
from 10Be isotope) are available. We show that for all 10 time moments of
the solar activity minimums the observed prices were higher
than prices for the correspondent time moments of maximal solar activity
(100% sign correlation, on a significance level < 0.2%). This result,
combined with the conclusion about similarity of statistical properties of
the intervals between price bursts and solar activity extremes, we
consider as a direct evidence of the causal connection between wheat
prices bursts and solar activity. .
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