2 Introduction
Many people in
various countries are concerned with a question,
what is a real status and prospects of the
Russian space program? Is it going to collapse
soon or will it survive? If it survives, which
way the new Russian space policy may go and how
that would influence a global scene of space
activities?
One immediate
practical aspect of such questions is whether it
is worth relying on cooperation with Russia in
on-going or future projects (if its space
infrastructure is about to collapse)? On the
other hand, is it wise to support it in any form
(if there is a chance for return to
confrontation)?
Difficulties
in answering these and other similar questions
are complicated by problems in obtaining sound
information about what exactly is going on in
Russia and, perhaps the most difficult, in
correctly interpreting the available data, which
are typically scattered and subjective.
This paper
represents an effort to watch the Russian space
program from a close distance, while remaining
independent from its establishment and thus able
to critically analyze official statements and
reasonings behind them.
The paper
considers status of the space activity in Russia,
including:
- financing
of the national space programs;
- operational
status of national space systems;
- situation
in the space industry.
To outline
implications of the above to global space
cooperation and competition, the paper discusses:
- perceived
role of international activities for
survival of the Russian national programs
and;
- internal
political environment for international
space projects, particularly prospects
for drastic changes of a state space
policy after upcoming elections.
2 Status of
space activity in Russia
General
situation in the Russian space program is
determined by two fundamental factors: the end of
the Cold War and on-going economic
transformations. The former factor results in
several features, which are common to all
participants of the Cold War. However, the latter
causes substantial specifics of the current
Russian situation.
Budgeting
In the former
Soviet Union missile and space programs enjoyed
very high priority and were appropriately
supplied with money and materiel resources. A
demilitarization of the economy with the end of
the Cold War lowered priority of missile and
space programs, while economic crisis, associated
with break-up of the state planning system,
decreased a total amount of resources, available
to the government.
Figure 1,
summarizing officially released data on the
Soviet/Russian space budget between 1989 and
1995, clearly shows drastic decline of funding
immediately before and after the break-up of the
Soviet Union in 1991. According to Russian Space
Agency (RSA), funding for space program in real
terms fell more than 5-fold, from equivalent of
3.9 to 0.69 billions dollars and relatively to
GNP it declined from 0.73 to 0.29 per cent.
 |
- Figure 1. Space budget of
USSR/RF[1].
|
Precise
interpretation of these figures is complicated by
two factors. First, prior to 1991 an exchange
rate of ruble/dollar was not fully representative
because of the closed nature of the Soviet
economy. Second, figures before 1991 relate to
the whole USSR, while figures after 1992 relate
to the Russian Federation, which has
significantly smaller overall budget, but, on the
other hand, possesses less number of space
industrial and research organizations.*
Nevertheless,
the available data leave no doubt, that the
financial situation of the Russian space program
is extremely tough.** The U.S. NASA with its
expected budget cuts of some 12% in 5 years looks
like an etalon of steadiness and wealth from a
Russian perspective.
_________________________________________________________
- * As will be discussed
below, official statements, including
budget calculations, should be taken
with a grain of salt. The outcome of
those heavily depend on when, by whom
and with which purpose they are done.
- ** RSA and Space Forces
claimed, that they need nearly triple
as much money as they have been
allocated in FY'95 budget (5860
millions rubles vs 2551 millions).
Status
of space operations
One of the most
obvious consequences of budget cuts is a decline
of procurement, which is observed in decreased
launch rate. Figure 2 shows, that in 1993-1994
Russian launch rate fell to one half of the level
of mid-80s.
 |
- Figure
2. Space
launches in 1983-1995.
|
The
launch rate, however, is not an unambiguous
indicator, since it may diminish because of
increased operational longevity of spacecraft, as
it was the case with the U.S. space systems in
60s. More representative is the status of
operational space systems.
Table 1 lists
all Russian space systems currently in use and
shows their replenishment during 1994 and 1995.
The table
demonstrates, that practi |