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The scientific output and research activity of Armagh Observatory staff over the past seven years are summarised in Table 2. During this period, virtually all relevant performance indicators show a significant improvement: the number of refereed journal publications has trebled, the amount of external income has increased by a factor greater than five, and the number of identified media citations has increased by a factor greater than twenty.
However, Table 2 also highlights a worrying trend, namely a significant real-term decrease in the amount of DENI/DCAL funding. Without increased core funding, it will not be possible to maintain the positive trends seen in the above performance indicators; research activity at the Observatory will decline; and the fruits of the substantial financial and intellectual investment in astronomy at Armagh since the mid-1980s will have been wasted.
The 1998 Annual Report closed with a number of `Items of Concern', the first of which concerned the issue of access to a sufficiently high bandwidth connection to the internet through the Joint Academic Network (JANET). The difficulty of resolving this issue may be attributed in part to funding issues, in part to the Observatory's unique status in the UK academic/research scene. The interests and objectives of the Armagh Observatory do not appear to fit closely with the strategic aims of any single Northern Ireland government department, but it is important that the Observatory should not be penalised by `falling between stools'.
In fact, compared to its position a decade ago, the Observatory has `lost' a number of funding possibilities in comparison with opportunities open to other similar institutions and research groups in the UK. These include: (1) the lack of a Northern Ireland research studentship quota following the transfer, in the early 1990s, of research studentship funds from the SERC to the DENI; (2) the replacement, in the mid-1990s, of a primary connection to the JANET with a `sponsored' connection through QUB at a much lower bandwidth (256kbps) than that (2Mbps) available to a university department; (3) the lack of any funding uplift in proportion to RAE-assessed improvement in 1996; (4) the omission in 1999 of the Observatory from plans to extend JANET access to both universities and FE colleges in Northern Ireland, and exclusion from plans for a high-bandwidth Northern Ireland Municipal Area Network; and (5) the apparent omission of the Observatory from funding opportunities under the JREI from 2000, when (under the DENI) it was eligible in 1999.
It seems important to underline with clarity the nature of the current threat, due to underfunding and other factors, to the continuing success of the Observatory. The following remarks are taken from the conclusion of the Operational Plan for 1999/20003, prepared at the start of this 1999 reporting year. Finding a resolution of the funding problem was identified as the key strategic issue to be progressed during 1999.
``Looking to the future, irrespective of whether the government decides to fund a UK Spaceguard programme, it is essential that the Observatory should continue to strengthen its research capability. The alternative is to shrink, putting us in a weaker position for participation in the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise, and facing eventual decline. It is well known that the Observatory has not benefitted from any additional funding since the 1996 RAE, proportional to its improvement between the 1992 and 1996, and that this together with the rather flat funding regime of the past five or six years presents a rather dismal outlook for the future. Despite the enormous increase in research productivity indicated in Table 1 [see Table 2 above], the Observatory's total DENI grant-in-aid for 1999/2000 is virtually identical in cash terms to that given in 1992/1993. It cannot be emphasized too strongly that this cut in funding, in real terms, combined with the accumulation of unavoidable additional costs (e.g. the internal audit, salary inflation and a greater NILGOSS employer's pension contribution), has now reached a point where the Observatory may, within a few years, be facing a crisis comparable only to the long-term decline of the 1920s and 1930s, following the resignation of Dr J.L.E. Dreyer.
In short, the issue of chronic underfunding of the Observatory must be resolved. Compared to this, the other objectives that we seek to achieve during the coming financial year are relatively straightforward. The Observatory must convince the new Northern Ireland executive to continue its past, generous investment in astronomy, and to provide the Observatory with a sufficient level of funding to recruit and retain the number of senior research and support staff necessary for it to operate efficiently and influentially both on the UK and international astronomical stage. The Observatory has a rich heritage and can make an immense contribution to the cultural, economic and social life of the community.''