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ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF AVIATION AND AEROSPACE SYSTEMS
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Space activity at the beginning of XXI-st Century
view from inside

G.M.Chernyavskiy
STC for Earth Space monitoring of FSUE , Russia

1. The systemic approach in astronautics

Everyone who has linked his life with astronautics and those who are
interested in the future of the inhabitancy medium and its expansion up to
cosmic scales, are troubled about the current state and development of
space activity in the World and in the Native Land of the first artificial
Earth satellite (AES). Outlining this picture, even in the sketch version,
is far from a trivial task. The angle of its consideration and estimation
is essential. Launching of the first AES was a leap in intellectualization
of collective human mind - the main power capable of preventing the
destruction of the Terrestrial Civilization. Today astronautics has
penetrated both into material and spiritual side of the Human life.

- I.Kant.

From ancient times the mysteries of space environment have attracted
Earthmen. In the thirties of the last century, owing to scientific
research, the ways of penetration into space became clearer.
The founder of the space flight theory using jet propulsion principles was
K.E.Tsiolkovskiy, whose genius was manifested in the system approach to the
problem. K.E.Tsiolkovskiy not only found the means for space flights, but
formulated the aims of these flights as well.
The last 50 years of space age have shown that realization of
K.E.Tsiolkovskiy's ideas about proliferation of terrestrial life forms
through the Universe is a matter of distant future. At the same time, the
target function was determined correctly. The space activity is developing
just along this trajectory.
While discussing current problems of astronautics, one should remember that
the space activity represents a super complex problem that demands huge
intellectual and material resources, concentrating efforts in various
fields of vital activity on the scales not commensurable with Terrestrial
ones.
The problem complexity stipulates the system approach, whose principles in
the astronautics were laid down by K.E.Tsiolkovskiy's works and implemented
at the first AES development.
Methodologically the system approach specificity lies in the fact that it
orients a man, who tries to learn about the objects and phenomena, to their
completeness and integrative properties in space and time. The system
approach (SA) is the expression of some specific measure of reality - its
system nature.
Deep understanding of properties of the material and spiritual world
stipulates progressive differentiation of the branches of knowledge.
Simultaneously, penetration into a partial subject, up to the micro- (nano-
) world, puts forward a systemic (integral) vision of the problem,
understanding of determinants of its aims and organization.
"I believe that learning the parts without knowing the whole is as
impossible, as learning the whole without knowing its parts" - Blaise
Pascal.
The system approach, together with the computer modeling methodology,
represents a unique means of forming the adequate information about space
activity.
The 50-year experience of practical astronautics testifies to the
efficiency of space activity explication by some system of actions directed
at producing and designated utilizing of some class of space-based complex
technogenic (man-made) systems, or (SS) under the accepted terminology.
SS represents an ordered-in-ratios set of space-based (as well as ground-
based) technological means (components) that interact in a certain way. The
integrative properties and functions of this set are directed at reaching
the aims related to space exploration.
The feature of space systems consists in the fact, that their basic part -
the spacecrafts (artificial Earth satellites, automatic interplanetary
stations (AIS), rovers, space vehicles), as well as the means of their
transportation - operate under non-trivial space environment conditions.
The basic system-forming component on the Earth is the complexes of
technological means of SS users. The ground-based means also provide
spacecraft control in flight, preparation and maintenance of transportation
means launching.
Today on the system approach basis the space activity covers the whole set
of actions directed at production, legal protection and using SS in the
target designation including: goal statement, the configuration outline,
development and production of subsystems and components, system operation.
All basic space projects, fulfilled during 50 years, implement complex
systems. They are: the first AES launch, the first manned space flight,
manned and automatic Moon missions, interplanetary flights of AIS. These
projects also include numerous SSs designed for utilizing space
environment.
Operational capability attributes of a complex system during its whole life
cycle are as follows: integrity (emergentness), purposefulness,
acceptability, continuity, dynamism, compatibility, and autonomy. The
presence of aim is an inherent property of any complex system. SS belongs
to the category of systems for which the aims are formulated by a higher-
level system that generates them.
"It is more important to know "what should be done" than to know "how to do
it" (N. Wiener). The more accurately the aims are formulated and
determined, the easier the means of their achievement can be chosen.
At motivation of space activity's aims the intrinsic mechanisms inherent in
Earthmen are of essential importance, which have been produced for
centuries due to natural and anthropogenic environment. These mechanisms
are: creativity, ambitions, competition, inquisitiveness (aspiration to
knowledge), propensity to residence change and to movements (travels) -
"Investigations of space should grasp imagination" (Carl Sagan).
At the same time, the features immanent to a Man prevent association of
society on the global scale for exploring the space. Therefore the space
activity is accomplished at the state level and has a competitive shade.
A key factor in the space activity is getting the benefit in the military,
scientific, economic, and social sphere by the state. Today ambitions in
space activities play a decisive part in the policy of a country.
The space activity requires considerable investments. Hence the large-scale
projects are implemented within the framework of international cooperation.
Successful examples of such cooperation are: the Russian-American ISS
project, American-European cooperation in the field of space research and
Earth remote sensing (ERS), borrowing of technological solutions from
advanced countries by China.
Unfortunately, the monetary approach in Russia resulted in the situation,
when the international cooperation was reduced to participation in the
market of space services. Finished goods are purchased abroad in the form
of instruments and aggregates for space technology, rather than the
developments and technologies. This has resulted in failed Russian-European
projects on establishment of a joint satellite navigation system on the
GLONASS basis and joint development of a reusable transportation space
vehicle (SV).
Over the fifty years two space activity directions with peculiar aims and
means of their achievement have been formed in the world practice.
The principal direction of space exploration is scientific research, whose
aim consists in acquiring knowledge about the space and the Earth as its
integral part. The next direction of space investigation is utilization of
space features and resources directly for terrestrial needs. The target
tasks of global informatization are advanced to the foreground, which
suggests the informational supply of society owing to new information
technologies and promising means including space-based ones.
The direct staying of people in space holds a special place in space
activity. The flight of the first Soviet cosmonaut into space was an epoch-
making event and has served as the beginning of this process. Manned
flights into space have become and remain to be a reference point in space
activity successes. These flights have a great social and political value.
They make it possible to solve the tasks of space features research.
Ranging of the contribution of any country into the world space activity
represents a multicriterion problem. One of simplified solution versions
consists in a qualitative estimation with respect to a series of indicators
excluding their individual weighting factors. The following indicators
could be chosen: scientific and technological results on basic directions
of space investigations and utilization, on manned programs, as well as on
the technological means of space exploration.

2. Technological means for space exploration

Interrelation between "purposefulness" and "acceptability" system
attributes, with a leading part of the first attribute, is decisive for a
complex technological system. For SS the "acceptability" attribute is
substantially determined by technological means' capabilities providing
transportation, as well as direct or indirect stay of a Man in space.
For 50 years of the space age two types of technological means have formed,
which differ in their target designation: spacecrafts (SC) which provide
the SSs target tasks in space (artificial Earth satellites, interplanetary
stations, rovers, space vehicles) and transportation means (launch
vehicles, boosting and landing modules, transportation vehicles which
provide delivery of cargoes on the Earth-space, space-Earth and space-space
routes).
One of the remarkable features of the first AES is the fact that it
initiated the establishment of a new industrial branch, i.e. space vehicle-
building functioning in a system association with rocket building. Features
of this branch consist in developing, manufacturing and operating the
technological means capable of long-term functioning under non-trivial
space environment conditions.

2.1. Space vehicles
The Soviet Union was a founder of the space branch. First-in-the-world-
practice samples of different SCs were produced here performing various
functions but on the whole implementing exactly the system approach.
Today of principal importance for SSs is the ability of real time task
solution which, on the global scale, is provided by an orbital system of
several AESs. Not single but regular, permanent stay of SC constellations
on orbit is the dictates of the 21st century. At the 4th International
Conference on Space (Israel, 28-29 January, 2009), one of basic space
activity directions was declared to be formation of satellite
constellations for integrated sensing of Terrestrial objects and phenomena
in various ranges of spectrum.
SC along with system functions should also perform a set of service
functions providing its functioning in space. For this purpose SCs are
equipped with an onboard power unit, "life support" system, motion control
system, etc. The choice of SC configuration represents a multicriterion
problem solved under the conditions of its parameters correspondence to
system attributes. The principal requirement is increase of value of
information processed at the SC at size-and-mass restrictions (launch
means) and limitations in the cost of SC launch and operation.
The SC configuration is determined in particular by the space platform
structure and onboard target complex. Unification of space platforms is
conducted for reliability improvement and cost reduction. Platform's
analogue from the available technological reserve serves as a basis for
unification. For the first time unification was implemented in the
seventies on the basis of structural-and-assembly scheme and onboard
service systems of the domestic navigation and communication SC "Tsyklon".
Two trends occur when choosing the mass-and-size characteristics of SC.
The first trend is represented by increase of the mass and size of SC. It
is characteristic for AESs on geostationary and high-altitude orbits, where
system's operative characteristics are provided by a limited membership of
an orbital constellation.
The mass of a geostationary AES (GAES) today reaches 6.7 tons (IPStar,
TerraStar) and will be increased up to 8 tons on the Alphabus platform
basis, according to experts' forecasts. Power supply capacity - 18 kW, the
lifetime - up to 15 years. The mass of the GPS SC model, whose launch is
planned in 2013, equals to 2.7 tons (the model operated today weighs 2
tons). The upper limit of SC mass is regulated by system approach's
attributes. The latter is in some conflict with proposals of "Energiya" RSC
on producing universal heavy space platforms.
The second trend is characteristic for satellites on mid- and low-altitude
orbits. Here, the cluster SC system is necessary to provide operative SS
characteristics. And the small satellites are reasonable to reduce expenses
and risks.
The first-in-the-world-practice low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite for
personal communication with the mass of 60 kg was produced in the Soviet
Union in the middle of the sixties of the last century. At present SSs on
the small-size AES basis began to appear again. The satellites with the
mass of 100-500 kg are produced in a number of countries including Russia.
In 2009 the system of Rapid Eye ERS satellites (the development of British
SSTL and Canadian MDA) was put into operation. The mass of SC equipped with
multispectral instruments, having resolution of 5 m, equals to 175 kg. The
developments of micro-, nano- and pico-AES are in progress as well.
The basic designation of micro-, nano- and pico-satellites is performance
of scientific and technological experiments including remote Earth sensing.
The small-size satellites are also purchased by developing countries that
aspire to enter the club of space states.
The efficiency of SC is estimated by the relative mass: Ìï.í./ÌÊÀ (Ìï.í. is
the payload, and ÌÊÀ is the SC mass). Today it equals to 0.4 - 0.45.
According to "Euroconsult" data, 307 commercial SCs were manufactured
during 1999-2008. According to company's predictions, the world market of
satellites manufacturing for the period of 2009-2013 is estimated by the
figure of $56.6 billion. 469 SCs are supposed to be manufactured. The
annual cost of the global market of SCs of the mass up to 200 kg for the
period of up to 2011 is estimated as $225 million. The quantity of SCs,
supplied by companies, is distributed as follows: "Thales Alenia Space"
(43), "Chinese Academy of Space Technology" (39), EADS Astrium (34), "Space
Systems"/"Loral" (25), "European Satellite Navigation" (19).
The number of SCs in space constellations (2008): China - 46, Japan - 46,
Russia - 51, Europe -115, USA - 330. 107 SCs were launched in 2008. 26 of
them belong to the USA, 20 - to Russia, 12 - to the Peoples' Republic of
China, 8 - to Germany. The Russian orbital system concedes the USA and
Europe considerably.
Today the space vehicle building technology in Russia is in stagnation
state because of growing lag in the radio electronics.
In 2007 the Government adopted an important (from the viewpoint of space
vehicle-building modernization, too) Federal Target Program (FTP) . Its
implementation demands significant investments. Today the international
cooperation in purchasing instruments and, above all, borrowing information
technologies is the only exit from the present situation for Russia. The
first step in this direction is the agreement on strategic cooperation
signed in 2007 between "Reshetnev ISS" Public Corporation and "Thales
Alenia Space" company.

2. 2. Launch vehicles (LV)
At the present stage of space activity the aims of producing launch
vehicles are "intermediate" for SS. At the same time the transportation
means represent, simultaneously, the final product in the space services
market, which strengthens their role in space activity even more.
According to consulting company's data, the activity in the world market of
space launches, which lowered during previous years, tends to increase the
number of launches since 2005 (2004 - 54 launches, 2005 - 55, 2006 - 66,
2007 - 67, 2008 - 71). A burst of inquiries on LEO satellites launches is
observed to come from ERS and "personal" communication.
It is remarkable that the number of launches has been growing on the
background of increasing AES functioning warranty period, which testifies
to the growth of space activity as a whole. Russia leads in the number of
SC launches. The total number of launches accomplished in 2008: Russia - 26
(18); USA - 15 (14); China - 10 (10); Europe - 6 (2), the number of
domestic launches is in brackets.
Such a ratio in launches of domestic and foreign SCs indicates that the
space activity of the USA and China is directed at internal technological
needs, whereas in Europe and Russia the commercial aspect of launches
prevails. However, whereas Europe in close interaction with the USA is
quite active in basic space activity directions, Russia is under threat of
turning into .
Nowadays Russia possesses a sufficient stock of launch vehicles (LV). The
following LVs are operated intensively: light-class "Cosmos-3M", "Rokot"
and medium-class LVs including modifications of "Soyuz", "Dnepr", "Proton"
and "Proton-M". "Cosmos-3M" and "Rokot" are conversion LVs. Production of
"Cosmos-3M" was terminated. The available ammunition of "Rokot" LVs allows
launches up to the year of 2015.
"Soyuz-2" LV represents a modernization of the well-known BR7À and is
actively applied for launching satellites. Together with the booster unit
"Fregat" it provides launching SC into mid- and high-altitude orbits. LV
"Soyuz" is reliably used in the manned program, and NASA confirmed its
intention to use it for delivering astronauts to ISS after termination of
"Shuttle". Modernization of LV ("Soyuz - ST" project) is realized.
LV "Dnepr" is per se RS-20 "Satana". Since 1998 this LV has performed 13
launches of more than 30 Russian and foreign satellites. Current stock of
LVs equals to 150 items.
As managers of believe, the Russian industries will be occupied with orders
on launches from Baikonur, Plesetsk and Kourou (French Guiana) cosmodromes.
Only part of these plans will be obviously carried out. The situation in
the world market of space launches can be characterized as aggressive from
the USA, Europe, India and China.
Since 2010 Europe terminates application of Russian launch vehicles "Dnepr"
and "Rokot" in favor of its own light-weight LV "Vega". The experts in
Europe consider the project of LV "Soyuz-ST" launching from the Guiana
Space Center as a possible temporary solution before starting exploitation
of their own rocket of average carrying capacity. European experts discuss
the question of modernizing LV Ariane-5, which, in the Ariane-5 MÅ version,
can deliver about 12 tons of payload to the geostationary polar orbit
(GPO).
India, using ÐSLV LV, has launched 30 AESs by now, 16 of which are foreign.
The LV GLSV-MkIII is being built now. Next decade the carriers of new
generation with increased carrying capacity are to enter the market: EELV
(USA), HIIB (Japan), (China).
SC development according to the criterion becomes a characteristic feature
of world rocket building for the market of launching services. First-stage
solid-fuel boosters and application of oxygen - hydrogen upper stages
(absent in Russia now) begin to spread. The Americans, Chinese and Japanese
follow the way of producing LVs of diameter up to 10 m, whereas Russian LVs
are limited to the size of 4.1 m.
As for the rocket building prospect in Russia, it looks rather
controversial. In 1995 the Government adopted the Decree < span>Angara",
which was defined as a highway of domestic launch means. In 2008 V.V.Putin
assigned primary importance to the "Angara" and "GLONASS" programs in
Russian space activity. The "Angara" family includes four types of LVs
(from light- up to heavy-weight classes). LVs are produced on the basis of
two unified rocket modules URM-1 and URÌ-2 with supposed future carrying
capacity from 1.5 to 24 tons on LEO. The given program is realized by
Khrunichev State Enterprise with wide cooperation. Flight tests of a light-
weight version of LV are planned in 2011.
The northernmost-in-the-world "Plesetsk" cosmodrome was chosen as a site
for LV launching. Simultaneously, "Svobodniy" cosmodrome, located in the
southeast of the country, was closed. In so doing, the idea was declared
that all Russian SCs would be launched from domestic territory by means of
LV "Angara". However the geographical position of the cosmodrome does not
allow launches with an existing route of manned flights with inclination of
51º. As for GSÎ, LV "Proton - M" is much more advantageous than LV "Angara-
5".
According to the experts' opinions, modifications of light-weight "Angara-
1.1" LV and medium-weight "Angara-1.2" LV will hardly find consumers
because of their low performance characteristics. Russian Ministry of
Defense has already expressed its negative attitude towards LV "Angara-
1.1". The FTP was accepted in 2007 that provides building of "Vostochniy"
cosmodrome.
At the beginning of 2009 concurrently with works on LV "Angara", declared
competition and initiated a sketch designing of a new generation medium-
class space rocket complex (SRC) of increased carrying capacity ("Rus'-M").
The first launch of the new LV is going to be in 2015.
According to the tactical and performance specification (ÒPS), the new-
generation SRC is designed for solving the problems in the interests of
federal departments of Russia - first of all, under the program of research
and exploration of the near-Earth space and, subsequently, of celestial
bodies by manned vehicles, as well as in the interests of international
cooperation and commercial customers.
Designers claim that at comparable (with LV "Angara-5") carrying capacity
(more than 20 tons) the new-generation SRC is distinguished by the
following:

- manned means are given the priority in fulfilling the stated
tasks;
- adaptation to "Vostochniy" cosmodrome that provides launching over
the routes of manned flights and to the geostationary orbit;
- the tandem launching scheme and oxygen-hydrogen engines;
- strict safety requirements;
- the prospect of producing LVs with carrying capacity of 50 and 100
tons.

(One should note that the carrying capacity of "Ares-1" carrier equals to
26 tons, and that of "Ares-5" carrier, designed for the Moon and Mars
missions, is 180 tons).
In 2009 information appeared that the Government is going to fund the
production of a new light-weight-class carrier "Soyuz-1" with launching in
2011, which will provide delivery of payload of mass up to 4.5 tons to LEO
orbits.
Thus, two series of launch vehicles are simultaneously produced in Russia,
i.e. "Angara" and "Soyuz" families. Meanwhile, in the USA the issue is
widely discussed of choosing the LV according to the criterion and
manufacturing only one of four types of heavy-weight launch vehicles for
the manned program.
As a consequence we can cite S.B.Ivanov's statement: <<>Angara> rockets is
a major trump in demonstration of a leading space power's position, and
further delay in construction of launch complex threatens to show
inefficiency of governmental management of the largest project. The rocket
in a light- and heavy-weight version must be launched in 2011>.

3. Space research

Space investigations with the means located directly in space are the
locomotive of the whole space activity. New knowledge about the Earth
acquired from space, knowledge about Space and Universe enable the Mankind
to realize their position in the World and realize their own responsibility
for arrangement of life on the Earth. Exploitative approach towards space
activity and underestimation of conducted research are dangerous on global
scale.

Briefly on past events in space research
Even in 1958 the flights of the first satellites gave new information about
physical parameters of the Earth and near-Earth space. The first data on
the Moon, Mars, and Venus were obtained during the flights of Soviet
automatic interplanetary stations (AIS) in 1959, 1961 and 1971,
respectively. After this, information from the American ÀISs began to come.
The boom of space research coincided with the sixties and seventies of the
last century, when the "storm" of the Moon, Mars and Venus began. The
Soviet Union alone launched 44 ÀISs to the Moon, 18 - to Mars, 28 - to
Venus. Though less than 50% of launches succeeded, the effectiveness of
these missions was rather high. The obtained information is still being
processed.
On March 2, 1972, the interstellar envoy of mankind - American SC "Pioneer-
10" - set forth to novel depths of the Universe. Being today in working
condition, this vehicle has left Solar system's boundaries and is moving
now towards the Aldebaran star in the Taurus constellation.
In subsequent years the research SCs of the USA, Russia, and Europe
visited various areas of the Solar system. In the eighties the Soviet Union
launched two ÀISs toward Venus and one to Mars. In 1996 the Russian
research AES "Interball-2" was put into orbit.
Considerable revival in space exploration is observed at the beginning of
the 21st century. The scope of work admires with its immensity. Research
SCs of all leading space powers stay in space permanently. The objects for
research are the following: the Earth and near-Earth space; the Sun, the
Moon and planets of the Solar system; astrophysical processes, :
Flights to the Moon and Mars begin to hold a principal position in space
research. Other programs are intensified as well. In January 2006 one of
the most fascinating missions in astronautics history began and is still
under way - the interplanetary probe "New Horizons" set forth to flight
with the task of studying Pluto and its satellite Haron:

3.1. The Earth and near-Earth Space
Space means are quite efficient in studies of the Earth and near-Earth
Space. Earth remote sensing (ERS) SCs and techniques are used for these
purposes allowing integrated solution of research and monitoring problems
within a wide spectrum of tasks.
Extensive and complex investigations of the Ocean and acquiring the data on
terrestrial gravitational field and geoid have been extensively carried out
jointly by the USA and Åuropean Space Agency (ESA) since the eighties.
SC "Envisat" (ÅSA, USA) has been functioning since 2002 with the task of
acquiring the data on parameters of the atmosphere, surface of continents
and oceans, ice cover, as well as for updating the geoid in the ocean.
Satellites GRAE (Germany, USA-2002), Topex-Poseidon, JASON-1, JASON-2 (USA,
France) serve the same purpose. "Jason-2" satellite, launched in 2008,
composed a full map of the World Ocean surface for estimating and
forecasting the climate changes and formation of stormy winds. The European
Union countries and the USA start works on designing JASON-3 with launching
in 2013.
In 2009 within the framework of the European program "Earth Explorer" GOCE,
SMOS, Cryosat 2 satellites were launched for studying the gravitational
field and stationary circulation of the ocean, salinity of ocean water and
soil humidity. GOSE satellite, put into orbit of about 250 km, is equipped
with a device capable of recording accelerations of 10-13 g.
Indian satellites "Oceansat" are also functioning with the purpose of
monitoring the oceanic processes.
In the Soviet Union studies in the field of oceanology and geodesy were
carried out separately with SC launches in 1988 and 1965, respectively, and
were terminated at the end of the last century. Investigations in this
direction are not carried out in Russia today.
It is planned to start data acquisition on the Earth geoid at the beginning
of the next decade with SC GEO-IK, whose instrument composition does not
allow solving the tasks at the level of foreign analogues. The
oceanographic satellite "Ìåteor-M" No.3 is also supposed to be launched but
only after launching of satellites "Ìåteor-M" No.1 and No.2.

3.2. Solar system
In performing space investigations of the Solar system, the ambitions
regarding the Moon exploration were declared by the USA, ÅSA, Japan, China,
and India. The prime aims of these investigations are the magnetic and
gravitational fields of the Moon, soil probing, estimation of helium-3
concentration in soil, etc.
To perform the Moon mission NASA launched LRO and LCROSS satellites in June
2009 for gathering information on providing radiation safety of a man on
the Moon and searching for water resources. The Russian neutron telescope
LEND is installed onboard LRO.
In June 2009 Japan successfully completed a 19-month mission of the
Japanese lunar probe intended for mapping, studying of minerals and
gravitation level.
In November 2008 Chinese specialists presented a full map of the Moon
composed from the results from ÀIS "Chane". The second Moon satellite for
working-out the technology of landing "Chane-2" is planned to be launched
in 2011. In 2013 "Chane-3" SC is supposed to land on the Moon. The round-
trip lunar rovers are planned for the years of 2017-2020.
In 2008 India put into orbit SC "Chandruayaan-1", which among other tasks
is intended for producing a detailed atlas of the lunar surface. This
program is considered to be the least expensive among all implemented
programs of the Moon exploration.
Carrying out Mars missions, the USA accomplishes the program of studying
Mars with the help of landing modules. In May 2008 "Phoenix" probe landed
in the northern polar area of Mars. Its tasks are identification of soil
and atmosphere composition, as well as clarifying the possibility for
living organisms to exist there. The stationary vehicle is equipped with
means for drilling the surface, extracting and chemical analysis of soil
and ice samples with a microscope. Mars Exploration Rover mission is
proceeding within the framework of which "Spirit" and "Opportunity" rovers,
designed for studying the mineralogical and geological structure of the
Martian soil and searching for traces of water, have been moving on Mars
since 2004. Launching of American (in 2011) and European (in 2016) Martian
rovers is planned. These vehicles are supposed to give an answer to the
question, whether methane on Mars has biological or geological origin.
In Russia, within the framework of Mars exploration, the project on
exploring Phobos - Martian satellite - has been developed since the end of
the last century. Repeatedly postponed launch of ÀIS "Phobos-grunt" is put
off again till 2011...
NASA continues performing the impressive research program of "Saturn -
satellites" system using SC "Cassiny" launched in 1997. During four years
the SC has committed 62 revolutions around Saturn, 43 flybys near Titan and
12 flybys near the other Saturn satellites, observing unique phenomena
occurring in the system under study. About 140000 images have been
transmitted from SC.
European SC Venus Express, revolving around Venus, investigates the
ionosphere and atmosphere of the planet.
In 2005 the USA, performing mission to Ìercury, launched SC Messenger
toward Mercury. It is making gravitational maneuvers near the Earth, Venus,
and Mercury and transmitting information about the type of planetary
surface and its chemical composition. Messenger is expected to enter the
orbit of Ìercury satellite in 2011.
American SCs STEREO-1 and STEREO-2, launched in 2006 for the Sun
observation, are moving around the Sun along the Earth orbit approaching
Lagrangian points L4 and L5, respectively. This will make it possible,
beginning with 2011, to observe the whole surface of the Sun and solar
substance ejection into space. The first three-dimensional images of
substance ejections from the solar corona and information on their velocity
and trajectory were transmitted. The capabilities of Russian research SC
"Cîronas-Photon" are worse than modest.

3.4. Astrophysical investigations
Within the framework of astrophysical investigations, in March 2009 NASA
launched into the solar orbit with perihelion of 143.9 million km and
aphelion of 156.2 million km the space observatory Kepler, whose scientific
task is searching for extra solar planets similar to the Earth. SC is
equipped with the telescope having a mirror with diameter of 1.4 m and a
CCD-receiver that is the largest one for all types of SCs.
In May 2009 ÅSA launched two space observatories "Hershel" and "Planck"
(built with participation of NASA) into the Lagrangian point L2. The
onboard powerful IR-telescope Hershel with the mirror 3.2 m over (the
diameter of Hubble telescope mirror is 3 m) is intended, in particular, for
studying formation of galaxies and their evolution at the early stage of
the Uni-verse formation, for studying the areas of stars formation, as well
as for investigation of chemi-cal composition in the atmospheres of comets,
planets and their satellites in the Solar system. The SC Planck is supposed
to compose a map of the cosmic background of the Universe.
In Russia since the middle of the nineties the orbital observatories of
"Spectr" series have been being developed (namely, "Spectr-R", "Spectr-UV"
and "Spectr-RG"). These objects were planned to be put into orbit
successively with an interval of two years, and the program was supposed to
be finished in 2011. Unfortunately, the program has not still begun.

4. Practical results of space activity

Utilization of space environment with the purpose of ensuring national
safety and social-economic sphere develolopment began in the USA and the
Soviet Union soon after launching of the first AES. During the first decade
considerable advances were achieved in the field of global informatization.
The first satellites and SS were built:

- communication AES "Atlas-Score", USA, 1958;
- meteorological AES "Òiros-1", USA, 1960;
- personal satellite communication system "Strela 1", USSR, 1964;
- navigation AES "Transit", USA, 1964;
- satellite relay system "Molniya-Orbita", USSR, 1967;
- motion control AES (navigation + communication) "Cyclone" (USSR,
1967).

Space exploration is developing dynamically on the basis of new information
and progressive space technologies using first of all the results of the
near-Earth space investigation. Simultaneously, this process is
commercialized with lobbying and financial support from the corresponding
states. A series of information SSs is produced and operated for solution
of three basic types of problems: satellite radio communication, coordinate
and time maintenance and the Earth remote sensing.

4.1. Satellite radio communication
, - A.Clark wrote.
Thousands of radio communication satellites are functioning today.
Satellite radio communication in respect of multimedia service leans upon
geostationary AES (GAES), which function in S-, Ku-, Ka-ranges. Here the
perspective lies in the digital and high-contrast TV (HDTV) and in the
growth of transmission capacity of radio communication channels due to
increase of the transponders number up to 100. This could be guaranteed by
increase of the onboard power capacity up to 20 kW and increase of the
antennae diameter up to 30 m.
In satellite radio communication the United States hold leading positions.
Radio communication satellites are produced in Europe as well as in China
and Japan. Despite the failures of the first GAESs, China produces them to
export to Nigeria, Venezuela, Laos, and Pakistan. The orbital system of
Indian SCs consists of 11 communication satellites of the "Insat" system.
Russian radio communication GAESs have a high rating and are popular in the
world market. Along with domestic satellites for the civil and military
purposes, Russia at the single-in-a-branch enterprise (Open joint-stock
company "Reshetnev ISS"), which has kept and develops production capacities
since the Soviet Union times, produces GAESs for Indonesia and Israel. GAES
production for Angola ("Àngosat") is planned.
At the same time, only about 300 out of 5500 onboard retransmitters that
operated in 2008 on geostationary orbits, with the bandwidth of 36 MHz,
belong to Russia.
One of the most popular satellite communication directions in the world is
VSAT-technologies designed for departmental and corporate networks. More
than 700000 ground terminals VSAT are operated now. The share of Russia
equals to 0.36%.
Along with satellite systems of multimedia service
"Inmarsat" company is a traditional leader in GAES operation at the L-range
frequencies. KVH/Visat Company began to apply GAES with retransmitters in
the Ku-range. In 2009 the satellite mobile communication SC TerraStar-1
(TerraStar Networks Inc. Company) was put into orbit. It provides
communication with mobile subscribers in the S-range and interface with
mobile communication stations in the Ku-range. In the given case the GAES
became a strong competitor to low-flying AES.
Dozens of AESs of SSs "Iridium" and "Globalstar" are functioning on LEO
orbits. In 2008 the number of subscribers of the two latter systems on the
global scale reached 650000. About 1000 thousand of these stations belong
to Russia.
The system of personal mobile satellite communication on LEO orbits was
produced, for the first time in the world, in Russia in the sixties of the
last century. Since the nineties, on the technological basis of satellites
of this system, the design work "Gonets" funded from the state budget has
been carried out. The information characteristics of the last model "Gonets-
D1M" concede to American analogues. As for developers' reasoning on the
prospects of functional association with the "Orbkomm" system, from the
commercial point of view they seem to be unreasonable.
In the eighties of the last century the relay satellite "Altair" was
developed in Russia. The basis of production of the large-size onboard
antennas and the discrete technology for SC control was incorporated in
this satellite. The technologies of on-board systems of "Luch" SC are being
applied and improved now in the space vehicle building. But the target
application of this satellite occurred to be unprofitable. However, by
unknown reasons the development of "Altair-2" satellite has begun.

4.2. Coordinate and time support
Satellite navigation as a form of space activity contributes much to the
global informatizaton. Today the American GPS is the basic means of
coordinate and time support (CTS) in military and civil purposes for users
all over the world. Orbital constellation of this system consists of about
30 AESs and allows users to determine accurate time, the speed of their
movement, as well as the longitude and latitude of location with accuracy
up to units of a meter. Technical characteristics of the system meet
international requirements for the satellite navigation means developed by
ICAO and IMÎ.
The USA President's Instructions of 2004 established the features of
development, purchase, utilization, operation and modernization of GPS and
expansible navigation systems developed in the USA. The basic purposes of
CTS systems were stated as follows:

- providing continuous access to national means within the
framework of national and internal safety tasks independent of foreign
means;
- free-of-charge access of civil users to GPS navigation signals
and supplementing means;
- improvement of ways for prohibiting hostile use of the USA CTS
systems;
- encouragement of developing the foreign CTS means and their
interfaces with US systems.

Russia carries on production of GLONASS system (Global navigation
communication system), which is the most advanced navigation system in the
world after GPS. The European satellite system "Galileo", similar in
construction and informational compatible with GPS, has been being
developed since 2003. In China, the satellite system "Beidou" ("Compass")
is being developed on the basis of geostationary and mid-altitude SCs. Some
experts believe that China will confine itself to the regional system, like
Japan. In India, the National regional navigation system composed of 8 SCs
(IRNSS) is financed.
The main users of satellite navigation, including the systems with
expansible navigation systems, except military departments, are the
following: sea-, air- and ground-based transportation, search-and-rescue
and inventory services. Satellite navigation is used in global, regional
and local networks of geodynamic monitoring of the Earth surface.
GLONASS destiny is remarkable for the Russian space activity.
Manufacturing of navigation satellite systems began in the USA and the
Soviet Union in the period of tough confrontation in the sixties of the
last century. It was necessary to support a parity of nuclear weapon and
its maintaining systems. For the same purposes the works on programs of
second-generation global satellite radio navigation systems "Navstar" (GPS)
and "Uragan" GLONASS) were deployed in the seventies. In spite of
technological lagging behind the USA in the field of radio electronics and
the beginning of "Perestroika" ("restructuring"), GLONASS as a
strategically important system for the country began functioning in corpore
in 1995. It was a world-wide success of domestic astronautics. The Soviet
Union has taken firm positions in the satellite navigation. However, the
unfavorable situation in the country and termination of GLONASS financing
promoted the onset of the system degradation.
Later the acquired experience and satellite navigation technologies enabled
to renew works on GLONASS in accordance with the Federal target program .
With the hope of financial support from ESA it was supposed to establish
the joint satellite system together with Europe on the GLONASS basis, which
would in the first place serve the needs of civil users. However, the joint
project failed and ÅSA started independent production of the global
satellite navigation system (GSNS) "Galileo".
In Russia this resulted in depreciation of role and responsibility of the
Ministry of Defense in producing and exploiting GLONASS. However, this
department represents one of the most organized links of the State
Machinery (in the USA GPS still remains under the powers of the Ministry of
Defense).
New urge to GLONASS works was given in 2005-2006 by numerous decisions
directed at revival of the orbital system composed of 24 SCs in 2010, with
supposed number of 30 SCs in 2011.
The task of actuating GLONASS for civil and military users on the global
scale was declared to be first-priority in the domestic space activity (a
dog with GLONASS collar became a conventional exhibit on the exhibition
stands).
Russian Federation Government's Decrees authorized the new edition of FTP
"GLONASS". State support of GLONASS in 2009 equals to 31.5 billion of
rubles. This sum looks quite solid on the background of Russian space
budget and testifies to the fact that planned investments to GLONASS are
comparable with US allocations for the space segment of GPS.
However, the question arises on expediency of restoration of GLONASS
orbital system with its former navigation tasks and expediency of
considerable financial investments for these purposes in changed conditions
and after a 15-year break.
There are no alternatives to satellite navigation in the military sphere.
At the same time, after termination of the "cold" war the emphasis in
military doctrine on the global scale has changed. Under the modern
situation, GLONASS seems to be capable of supplying the armed forces with
the necessary information at the given level of efficiency provided that it
is transformed into the regional system, similar to Japan, India, and
China. This will enable to reduce the number of SCs in the orbital
constellation and begin the full-scale operation of the system in short
terms.
As for the civil sphere of GLONASS application, the expected economic
benefit from the program realization by 2011 at a rate of 120 billion
rubles according to the FTP "GLONASS-11" seems unreasonable for some
reasons.
Today the world market of navigation services is actually monopolized by
the USA. Unlike GLONASS, the GPS system has been already functioning for
decades and has become an exclusive system of granting free-of-charge
services to the broad circle of users all over the world. GPS-technologies
act as a standard for the satellite navigation instruments (SNI) of mass
application. They form both the industry and a circle of users. Today the
domestic industry is not ready to compete with foreign manufacturers.
Joint exploiting of GPS and GLONASS can obviously have only a political
value and find application in the Russian market. But the Russian satellite
navigation market is rather limited, and its expansion is restrained by the
social and economic situation. Attempts of introducing GLONASS technologies
in Krasnoyarsk region and Saratov district can serve as examples in this
respect. The example with Odintsovo district of Moscow region can be of
interest, where the "Space Sport Palace" is being built, funded by GLONASS
program. Some effect can be expected only due to Government lobbying.
In 2008 Chamber of Accounts in their report put under doubt the commercial
part of domestic satellite navigation. It was noted that GLONASS to a high
degree of probability would be unable to compete with American GPS.
Not to transform GLONASS into the next "black hole" in Russian economy, the
investments into it should meet the modern realities. To ascribe the
coordinate and time support technologies to innovational ones, one should
instead of duplicating GLONASS satellites make the system decisions and
reach a new quality in ensuring the vital activity of mobile objects in all
Terrestrial media. By the way, investigations in this direction are carried
out in the USA.

4.3. Earth remote sensing
The Earth remote sensing (ERS) from space provides a unique opportunity for
acquiring the data about terrestrial objects and phenomena on the global
scale with a high spatial and temporal resolution. Space surveys form the
data on physical, chemical, biological, and geometrical characteristics of
observation objects in various terrestrial media. SCs are equipped with
multispectral instruments for active and passive sensing of detailed,
medium and crude resolution. Investigations in the field of Earth science
and near space exploration are carried out by ERS techniques and means. ERS
is one of the basic practical results of space activity. The spectrum of
problems solved with ERS is quite broad. ERS is used in hydrometeorology,
for diagnostics of terrestrial objects and phenomena, in the military
reconnaissance, geological prospecting, ...
The orbital ERS system will include up to 130 SCs by 2010, including about
20 SCs belonging to developing countries. Recently the number of launches
with onboard radars has grown. Only in 2007 five countries put into orbit 9
satellites with radars.
The program of producing the Global complex of ERS systems GEOSS is formed
on the international scale. About 60 countries and 40 organizations take
part in it. The works on ERS are carried out, as a rule, within the
framework of national and regional programs. Leading positions in the ERS
area are held by the USA, France, Germany, Canada, India, China, Israel,
and Japan. Russia, being the Native Land of the first AES, appeared to be
in a state of complete dependence on the foreign data in the ERS area its
share in the ERS market equals to less than 1%.

4.3.1. Hydrometeorology. Within the framework of the World Meteorological
Organization (WÌÎ) enclosing 147 countries, the global system of
meteorological observations from space was established. Hydrometeorological
satellites are placed on solar-synchronous and geostationary orbits and on
the global scale accomplish observations of the atmosphere, ocean and land
with the parameters corresponding to WMO recommendations. These satellites
are also used for diagnostics of emergency situations and for environmental
purposes.
The operative space systems are continuously functioning in the USA, they
are: GOES on geostationary orbits, POES (since 1979) and DMSP (since 1999)
- on LEO orbits. GOES systems series functions at two points of the
geostationary orbit (three remain reserved) together with two European
Meteosat satellites, one satellite from China, one satellite from India,
and Japanese satellite MTSAT-2 (2006). Considerable volume of data on land,
ocean and atmosphere is generated by satellites on LEO orbits: "Terra",
"Aqua", "Aura" (2004), CALISPSO (2006), and CLOUDSat (2006).
The hydrometeorological programs of the other leading space countries are
not commensurable in scale with American programs, but they are extensive
enough.
The meteorological satellite "Metop-1" was actuated in Europe (2006) under
the program . Joint decisions of NOOA and Eumetsat made in 1998 and 2003
are directed at producing the joint polar system (JPS) composed of NOOA and
"Metop-1" SCs.
In 2006 the United States and European Meteorological Agencies signed the
agreement, which restricts with a three-hour delay the access of third-
world countries to meteorological observations in the case of international
crises or confrontations.
In Japan the Earth observation from ADEOS GAES were carried out till 2003.
New GCOM project is intended for observation over global changes. This
mission is planned to be performed by SCs on solar-synchronous orbits GCOM-
W1 (2012) and GCOM C1 (2013).
In China, the satellite meteo- and radiosystem "Fengyun" has been
functioning over the country's territory since 2005. In October 2009 the
system of data transmission from the meteorological satellite "Fengyun-3À"
officially started translation to 17 countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
Moreover, China has granted user stations to 14 countries.
Meteorological satellites accomplish some other ERS tasks as well. The
Chinese ERS satellite "Yaogan-6" was launched in April 2009 with the
purpose of meteorological forecasts, soil state monitoring and tracing the
consequences of natural disasters. The Canadian space program is
implemented on the basis of RADARSAT satellites. The second oceanological
Indian satellite "Oceansat-2" began functioning in 2009.
In September 2009 in Russia after a long break a meteorological satellite
"Meteor-M" was put into orbit. After 60 satellites were launched during
1964-1994 the last meteorological "Meteor"-type SC was put into orbit in
2001 and was operated till 2005. The domestic orbital ERS system was
terminated (the geostationary satellite "Electro" was the only
meteorological SC made in the Soviet Union, and it ceased working a little
bit earlier).
A single launching of the "Meteor-M" satellite into orbit is a necessary
but insufficient condition for making contribution into the global system
of meteorological observations from space. On its basis, either the orbital
system of identical SCs should be formed, or SC should have a common format
of files with satellites of the other system. Besides, the instruments
equipment of "Meteor-M" satellite concedes to foreign analogues in its
characteristics. The infra-red sensing device of HIRS type is absent
onboard this SC. And only a microwave radiometer meets the modern
requirements.
At the same time, in Russia the work has begun on producing the regional
system "Arktika" ("Arctic") with communication and ERS satellites on high-
elliptical orbits for continuous meteorological observation over the Arctic
polar area and natural resources prospecting. This project is similar to
that developed by the Space Agency of Canada and will hardly be competitive
to it. The project cost is estimated by some tens billions of rubles. It is
hard to give it some technological and economic substantiation, if one
excludes a political component.

4.3.2. Earth monitoring from Space. Monitoring of the Earth, performed on
the ERS basis, includes observation, estimation and forecasting of natural
resources, state of terrestrial and water ecosystems, natural and
anthropogenic emergency situations. Technological means for monitoring
operate in the following ranges of a radio-frequency spectrum: UV, VIS, IR,
NIR, ÒIR, MW with a spatial resolution from low (1 km) up to ultrahigh (< 1
m).
For the purpose of Earth monitoring from space the Canadian space program
is implemented on the basis of radar-tracking SC RADARSAT.
A considerable volume of the Earth monitoring data has been provided since
2008 by the European orbital system of six mini-satellites RapidEye with
multispectral (6 ranges) optical and electronic instruments having
resolution of 5 m and surveying swath width of 77 km. The calculated
productivity of the system is 4.5 million sq. km per day. SC Terra Sar-X
(2007) with a spatial resolution of 16 m, 3 m, 1 m and productivity of 400
thousand sq. km per day serves the same purposes.
In 2008 China launched optical and electronic ERS satellites HJ-1A and HJ-
1Â with resolution of 30 m and swath width of 720 km. In 2009 the radar-
tracking AES HJ-1Ñ is to join.
In India the ERS satellites of Resourcesat series are used to forecast the
weather, prospect for minerals, monitor the crops, water resources, fishing
areas, as well as warn of emergency situations.
The environment monitoring tasks are carried out as well. The MODIS
spectrometer, installed on the American satellites Terra and Aqua, is used
for global studies of aerosols. In 2009 with the task of measuring CO2 and
CH4 concentration in the atmosphere Japan launched into the solar-
synchronous orbit Ibuki, which is the first-in-the-world space researcher
of a greenhouse effect.
The high- and super-high spatial resolution data from the American
satellites Quick Bird, Ikonos, World View-1 (2007), Geo Eye-1 (2008), and
from ERS satellites of France, India, Israel and Canada are the hottest
commodity of the market. These data comprise the basis on which the
technology of complex representation of the four-dimensional spatial
information of various nature in the uniform global medium is developed.
The World View-1 satellite with productivity of 700 thousand sq. km per day
has photographed 20 % of Russian territory with resolution of 50 cm.
The optical, electronic and radar satellites with a super-high resolution
are applied for the military purposes. In Germany the system of viewing all-
weather reconnaissance SAR Lupe was put into the operative exploitation. In
April 2009 the Indian LV PSLV launched the 300 kg radar SC RISAT-2 produced
with Israel participation for prospecting functions.
In Russia ERS satellites of high- and super-high resolution are launched
sporadically. AESs with optical and electronic instruments "Monitor-E",
"Resource-DK" and the photosatellite of "Cobalt" type were launched in
2005, 2006 and 2008, respectively.
The "Monitor-E" satellite was planned to be used for renewing and
developing the Earth monitoring works carried out at the end of the last
century with "Meteor-Priroda" and "Resource-O" satellites. SC orbital tests
failed, but turned out to be encouraging. However, for subjective reasons
the further developments of these satellites were terminated and
transferred to "TsSKB-Progress", where the development of a new optical and
electronic SC "Resource-P" began with launch planned for the next decade.
Besides, contrary to the world practice, it is supposed to combine the
monitoring tasks using medium-resolution instruments and acquiring super-
high resolution data on a single satellite.
In 2010 the "Kanopus-V" satellite is planned to be launched. This satellite
will have resolution of about 2 m in one channel and 10 m in four channels
with the swath width of 20 km. The prospects of this project can be
estimated allowing for the cluster of Rapid Eye mini-satellites having ever
higher characteristics, which have been widely used since 2008.

5. Manned programs

Manned flights around the Earth and to the Moon at the beginning of the
space age were epoch-making events and the evidence of human huge potential
capabilities. Manned flights stimulate the production technology and
exploiting of space means. Social and political value of manned flights
into space is undoubted. At the same time their direct contribution into
space exploration at the present stage seems to be ambiguous. For almost 50
years the contribution of manned flights to space research and exploration
appeared to be insignificant as compared to automatic vehicles.
Today the Man in space acts in two roles, i.e. as a subject (object) of
space research and as an operator. In the first case the preconditions are
generated for more successful solution of a space research problem
considering space as a habitat. As for acquiring the data on physical,
chemical, biological parameters of space, the capabilities of cosmonauts
are rather limited here. When a man acts as an operator, his activity is
associated with controlling and servicing the technological means. But in
any case the manned flights are one of the types of space activity.
The space research results are reached today owing to application of
automatic means together with manned flights. As for practical space
exploration tasks, the monopoly here belongs to the automated vehicles.
The world space activity in the manned flights area is now mainly
concentrated around the international space station (ISS).
ISS is operated jointly by the USA and Russia. Its vital activity is
provided by American "Shuttle" and Russian "Soyuz" vehicles.
The ESA module "Columbus" is also functioning as a part of ISS. The first
automatic transportation vehicle ATV flew to ISS in 2008. The Japanese
module Kibo is used, where the Japanese cosmonaut operates. In September
2009 the first flight of the Japanese automatic cargo transportation
vehicle HTV to ISS is planned.
China having become the third country in the world that possesses
technologies for manned space flights, acts independently. Chinese
specialists started producing the automatic space station the role of which
is assigned to the Tiangong-1 module weighting 8.5 tons, which is supposed
to be launched in 2010. The Tiangong-1 module is structurally similar to
the ATV vehicle.
During the station functioning, the training of cosmonauts from a number of
states and scientific experiments were carried out onboard. For the first
time in the world the cosmonauts performed servicing and repair of the
unique technical device - the "Hubble" telescope. This work seems to be the
only significant result of ISS.
Cosmonaut Georgiy Grechko comments the present state of ISS exploitation as
follows: .
For many years the ISS has regularly "eaten" the lion's share of Russian
space budget not raising the scientific and technological potential of the
country and preventing the serious space investigation projects. The USA
and Russia adhere to different positions regarding the further destiny of
ISS and prospects of Man staying on near-Earth orbits.
In 2004 the USA President has proclaimed the program for American
astronautics for the nearest 20-30 years, the basic goal of which appeared
to be construction of the permanent base on the Moon and subsequent manned
expeditions to Mars. Initially the first flight to the Moon in the
framework of Constellation program was to happen in 2020 and Mars flight -
in 2030.
Space complex composed of space vehicle "Orion" and LV "Ares-1" was
supposed to start to deliver astronauts to ISS in 2014.
Owing to financing deficiency, Ogastin's committee formed in the USA
presented in August 2009 recommendations on the national program of manned
flights proceeding from the project of NASA budget of $80 billions till
2021. These recommendations include canceling the program of "Ares-1" and
"Ares-5" LVs and development of a new, more powerful rocket on the basis of
"Space Shuttle" transportation system, or of a new, more powerful heavy-
class rocket of the EELV family. The versions of manned flights around the
Moon, to asteroids or to Mars, or the flights with the Moon landing and
preparing astronauts for Mars missions are considered. The Moon flights are
planned to be accomplished in 2025. In any case the Americans have
unequivocally determined the space exploration vector, supposing
transcendence of the limits of near-Earth orbits.
Russian position on the manned program is distinguished by conservatism. It
is declarative in contents, indistinct and inconsistent.
In 2007 the Head of stated: <>Russia is ready to help "the Chinese
partners" with their space program>. Two years later it was declared: . The
preliminary terms are stipulated, including the manned flight to the Moon
and construction of the Russian station on the lunar orbit during 2016 -
2026. That is the terms similar to American ones are declared.
By 2015 it is also supposed to accomplish the assembly and provide regular
operation of the Russian segment of ISS and to take a number of measures to
provide prolongation of ISS operation up to 2020. Five modules of various
designations are supposed to be introduced into Russian segment during the
same period of time. Moreover, is going to build two on the Earth orbits
for manufacturing unique materials and preparations.
With such statement of the problem it is obvious that in the nearest decade
there is no desire in Russia to start working under the lunar-martian
program, and the perspective of prolonged inefficient expenditure of means
on manned flights over near-Earth orbits is obvious.
Transcending the near-Earth orbits and future manned flights in the Solar
system seem to be a call of time. Russia does not need to search a special
way into space.
Still nobody in Russia thinks about a super-heavy launch vehicle, but
simultaneously two heavy-class launch vehicles are developed.
RSC "Energiya" after four years of trials with the "Clipper" project,
started sketch designing of a promising reusable SV. Russia needs a new
vehicle, but only as one of the components of a new large-scale innovation
project.

6. World space activity at the beginning of the 21st century

The world space activity, beginning with the first satellite launch,
develops cyclically and, as the practice testifies, has a positive
derivative. The triumphal success of the Soviet astronautics at dawn of
space age stimulated its rapid development in the USA. The race of rocket
and nuclear arms was complemented by reckless competition of two
superpowers for reaching the priority in astronautics.
The boom of charges on space fell on the period of 1963-69. At that time
NASA for example received 5.5 % of the national budget to outstrip the USSR
both in space exploration and in development of military technologies. Now
this figure is slightly higher than 0.55.
In the seventies of the last century there appeared a recession in space
exploration rates due to extinction of USA-USSR rivalry in the "Lunar"
race, while prolongation of lunar manned programs demanded huge expenses.
The sensations no longer occurred, and the interest to manned flights began
to vanish. This could not but had an effect on the popularity of space
activity on the whole.
One managed to partly reanimate attraction of manned flights in space due
to programs of the Soviet transportation vehicles and long-term manned
stations (LMS), as well as to American reusable spacecraft "Shuttle",
despite the absence of appropriate, capacious enough target tasks.
In conditions of continuing the President of the USA has proclaimed rather
doubtful program of "star wars" (strategic defensive initiative - SDI)
ostensibly ensuring the national safety. The Soviet Union in the absence of
sufficient material resources accepted the challenge. The works on reusable
"Buran" and LV "Energiya" were deployed. The developments on SDI program
counteraction began, which were stopped with disintegration of the country.
Simultaneously American experts became convinced of unacceptability of
implementing President's initiatives, and the boom around the "star wars"
vanished. Later, in 2007 in the report of American Center of strategic and
budgetary assessments (CSBA) it was shown that financial expenses for
deployment of space-based weapon for the purposes of antimissile defense,
striking the ground-, air- and sea-based objects, suppressing enemy's AES
and protection from the anti-satellite weapon were commensurable with the
Moon flights and equaled up to $290 billions on the kinetic weapon, and up
to $130-200 billions on laser systems.
After stagnation of the nineties, the increased activity in all space
directions was observed in the world. For recent decades, significant
results in space research and exploration were achieved except the field of
manned flights. Today 40 countries manufacture and launch SCs, and more
than 130 countries use their results.
The positive dynamics of space activity can be judged by its financing as
well. According to the USA Space Foundation data, the cumulative world
budget was $180 billion in 2005 and $ 251 billion in 2007. The sources of
financing are the state (military and civil) and commercial budgets. Space
activity all over the world develops basically due to investments from
state budgets.
In 2007 the USA public structures invested about $65 billion in space
activity, including $45 billion from Pentagon and $17 billion from NASA. In
2006 space budgets of Europe (ÅSA), China, Japan, and India, according to
some sources, amounted respectively to $4.3 billion, $1.5 billion
(according to other sources, twice as much is allocated annually), $1.46
billion, and $600 million. According to experts, the Chinese investments
are highly underestimated.
The space branch of Russia was financed in 2007 at the rate of $1.32
billion. In 2010 more than $2.5 billion are to be invested. This
corresponds to the first in the world growth rate of investments.
According to expert judgments, the world market of space services equals to
more than $100 billion. The most part of incomes is received by providers,
who render services to final users. The scope of communication, television
and other services is at the level of $60 billion. The market of navigation
means and services approaches $20 billion. (According to some experts, the
world market of navigation services will amount $40 billion by 2011). The
segment of world production of commercial satellites equals to about $10
billion.
The segment of space launches according to various sources equals to 2.5-3%
of the total space activity volume. According to FAA data, in 2007 the
incomes from space launches equaled to $1.55 billion and were distributed
as follows: USA - $150 million; Russia - $477 million; Europe - about $840
million.
The share of Russia in space launches segment equals to about 40% and is
less than 1% in the market of space services.
The developing market of space services in India is of interest. The share
of India, which possesses the greatest, after the USA, orbital system of
ERS satellites, equals to 18-20% in the world market of the Earth
observation from space. As for space launches, the ISRO management intends
to render launch services at the prices 30-40% lower than market ones.
In the world practice implementation of national goals in space activity is
accompanied by development of program documents at the state level. The
programs of leading space states, including Russia, have much in common in
the form and contents, but they also have essential differences associated
with financing volumes, achieved results, with the features of space
exploration policy in one or another country.
The national program of the USA is founded on leadership in investments and
available results in all directions of space activity. In the program the
emphasis is made on providing safety and promotion of space programs
commercialization. In this case the safety has wide interpretation assuming
that it can be influenced by space activity both directly and indirectly.
The USA national program can be characterized by president Obama's
statement made in March 2009: "Nobody doubts that within the "Space
Shuttle" program framework NASA managed to reach impressive achievements.
However, recently in our program there has been sensation of drifting down
the flow", :. "To ensure the power of our space program for a long-term
perspective it is necessary to remember :. the great adventures and
discoveries that can be expected in the future, :. it is necessary to
restore a feeling of interest and passion which accompanied the space
program, :. preparation of the mission corresponding to realities of the
21st century will become one of the basic functions :>.
The USA space program is distinguished by:

- specific target objectives of space activity;
- large scale of scientific investigations of the Earth, planets,
and other objects of the Solar system and deep space using AISs and
rovers; it includes one of the most fascinating missions in the
astronautics history, i.e. the flight of the interplanetary probe with
the mission of studying Pluto and its satellite Haron;
- ambitiousness of the projects directed at manned flights over
extraterrestrial routes, including the "Constellation" program, and the
tendency of evolutionary termination of the manned program on near-Earth
orbits;
- implementation of priority space exploration programs including
utilization of GPS and meteorological satellite systems, development of
super-high resolution ERS satellites, and the programs directed at
producing climate monitoring systems of new generation for providing air
traffic control.

The all-European space program is distinguished by:

- the second rank in financing volumes;
- performing works with valuable results in all space activity
directions, including the Solar system investigations, establishment of
two unique space observatories "Hershel" and "Planck" and promotion of
ERS technologies;
- international cooperation at all levels of participation, and
first of all, with the USA;
- high incomes in the market of space launches owing to the
presence of LV "Ariane-5".

In space activity of Japan the emphasis is made on space utilization with a
great share of military programs. At the same time Japan actively
participates in the Moon exploration and the ISS program.
Space programs of China are based on their national aspiration to world
leadership in space and are distinguished by high rates of realization.
China has become the third power in the world, which mastered technologies
of manned space flights. In fact, all space activity directions are being
developed in China, including participation in the Moon exploration,
construction of the national space station, the global positioning system,
radio communication and ERS AESs. For the Chinese program it is typical to
borrow the technological solutions from advanced countries with intensive
transition to independent developments and, simultaneously, implementation
of space technologies in developing countries. In the manned program China
had efficiently used scientific and technological developments of the
Soviet Union in this area.
The basic features of the Indian space program are:

- pragmatism and high profitability;
- competition with China;
- large scale plans of space research, including exploration of the
Moon, Mars, Venus, asteroids and comets;
- worthy place in the market of ERS space services;
- aspiration to the market of launching services.

7. Features of the Russian space program

Russia is doomed for space activity by the course of history, its national
sovereignty, and rich inheritance of the Soviet Union.
On the eve of disintegration the Soviet Union together with the USA held
leading positions in space activity, leaving the other advanced powers far
behind. Having lost the , the Soviet Union owing to its mentality has kept
a priority in a series of directions determining the astronautics
development. The latter include: studies of space environment properties;
the theory of flight and automatic control of SCs; technologies for
cosmonauts transportation and providing their vital activity; development
of robotic systems for exploration of the Moon and Solar system's planets;
engine building; satellite navigation and some radio communication areas.
Revolutionary changes in the social and political structure of the country
in 1991 caused squandering of the national property and resulted in
spiritual and material impoverishment of the country dooming the space
activity to degradation and stagnation for many years.
Under these conditions Russia has faced financial deficiency that collapsed
the space activity. The civil space programs financing that was equal to
$3.28 billion in 1989, dropped down to $0.2 billion in 1991 and remained at
the level of $0.3-0.5 billion up to 2004.
Searches for foreign investments have begun, to the detriment of national
interests in particular. Some of them turned out to be successful. They
are: the ISS and projects, joint development of radio communication
satellites, sale of rocket engines, granting services in the market of
launches, etc. But this could not save the situation because the space
activity demands long-term investments and, by its nature, can not exist
without state support. In 2006 the growth of state investments to space
activity was noticed in Russia. In 2007 the budget grew up to $1.34
billion, and in 2010 it will amount about $3 billion already.
Today according to the expert judgment Russia lags behind the five leading
space powers in all space directions except manned flights and the market
of space launches, and the lagging tends to grow. The country leaders make
some attempts to help the space activity of the Native Land of astronautics
out of stagnation.
In 2008 the Russian President ratified . This document designated
priorities providing achievements of major objectives of the space policy:

- first - satisfying requirements of national defense and safety,
of the social and economic sphere and science :. by deployment and
effective utilization of domestic orbital SC systems;
- second - ensuring the guaranteed access and independence of
Russian space activity over the whole spectrum of tasks solved in space,
including that achieved by building the cosmodrome of scientific, social
and economic designation inside the country;
- third - fulfilling international obligations of the Russian
Federation, including those concerning ISS, eventual deployment of the
Russian segment of the station;
- fourth - exploration of planets and Solar system's bodies getting
fundamental knowledge

The feasibility of the proclaimed policy, as a whole, can be judged by its
correlation with financial resources of the country. As for the priorities,
lack of focus on prospects is still noticeable. Otherwise it is difficult
to explain why the manned flights on near-Earth orbits occurred to be among
the privileged and the space research appeared to be in the fourth place.
It is also not clear why the requirements of the international law
concerning fulfillment of international obligations has turned from trivial
into priority one for the national space policy.
Sharp increase of governmental investments undoubtedly seems quite
important and encouraging for the space activity development. This factor
is necessary, but not sufficient. The appropriate social environment and
organization of this activity is obligatory.
It is known that under complicated economic conditions the Soviet Union
managed to accomplish break-through into space due to political will and
mentality.
The feature of social environment of space activity in Russia consists in
the fact that, having stepped on the monetary path, the state put forward
the profitability of the space branch. Promotion of space programs
commercialization in the policy of all space powers appears to be not an
aim, but means of its achievement. In Russia, however, commercialization
has turned into an end in itself. Today this policy has been still yielding
its results. Being unable to attract business to achievement of the aims
immanent to astronautics, the state directs the means intended for
developing space activity to the space services market rather than to the
branch upgrade. According to the data of Ministry of Economics (March
2009), the domestic space-rocket industry produces annually the goods at
the rate of $14800 per one worker. In the European Union it is $126800, and
in the USA - $493500.
It is hard to comment on succession in space activity of Russia and the
Soviet Union, since it is supported neither by appropriate organization,
nor by material and intellectual resources. In 2007 S.B. Ivanov recognized
that "the Russian space industry, having exhausted Soviet stocks of the
eighties, was not able to make really modern and competitive products. So,
one had to buy high technology production abroad".
In the space branch the equipment deterioration (the amount of facilities
whose age exceeds 10 years) equals to 75 %. Its operative renewal requires
five times as much funding as in 2007 from the state budget. The space
branch has suffered considerable losses in its staff. The gap between
generations occurred. The average age of the human resources is 50-60
years.
The School of chief designers established by S.P. Korolev has decayed. The
status of the chief designer has been discredited by diluting his rights
and duties. People not pertaining to design works are predominantly
appointed to this position. The giants who had been managing the national
space activity for decades were replaced by the dwarfs unable to state the
problems and to make appropriate technological decisions. There are some
examples: change of priorities and head executives of design works on SCs
"Electro", "Meteor-M", "Resource- DK", "Monitor-E", "Canopus-V", "Resource-
P", and on "Arktika" project:;
breaking the continuity in domestic military-and-industrial complex:
development of "Bulava" ballistic missile and "Superjet-100" airplane.
In Russia there is also no continuity in distribution of functions between
federal authorities in the space activity area. The administrative reforms
resulted in the situation when , unlike the world practice, has turned
simultaneously into a supplier, a customer, and a department responsible
for the space means operation. Even in the parliamentary inquiry addressed
to the Russian Prime Minister and adopted by the State Duma Decree No. 166
111 GD from February 21, 2001, it was suggested that as one of the measures
on restoring the Russian system of meteorological satellites, the Customer
functions should be returned to the Russian Federal Service on
hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring (from a manufacturer to a
consumer).
For example, abroad in the ERS area the space agencies (NASA, ÅSA) are
responsible for development and launching of SCs, and the operators (NOAA,
USGS, EUMETSAT) accept satellites and are responsible for the system
operation.
The GLONASS program is similar. Whereas in the USA the ground-based segment
of GPS control is functioning under the aegis of the Air Forces, in Russia
the role of the Federal GLONASS network operator is charged to the Open
joint-stock company "Navigation and information systems" which is
subordinated to . This is a rare case when a strategically important
national mission is charged to a private company.
The existing scheduling system also prevents the development of space
activity. The 2006-2015 FTP does not elaborate on the purposes and tasks
for the given time period. Without any system correlation it only regulates
the expenditure of state budget investments for producing some set of
technological means instead of statement of goals and specific tasks, and
development of subordinate plan for development of such means, like it
happens to be in developed countries.
Under these conditions any conversation about a of domestic astronautics is
reduced only to the quantitative escalation of the orbital system and
formation of a "black hole", where billions of budgetary rubles will
disappear without any account, spent on "introducing" some space activity
results obtained with the help of the out-of-date technology into economy.

8. Conclusions

Russian sacramental question can be answered in its second part.
The extension of anthropogenic activity in space demands large-scale
projects which should be based on scientific sense, romanticism and
pragmatism.
In order to provide Russia - Native Land of Astronautics - a worthy place
in the world community in the area of space exploration one should
recommend as a manual adopted in 2008 by the President of Russia, but only
after updating the priorities and imparting them a realistic character.
To implement this document it seems necessary:

1. Not to search for a special way for Russia, but find its own niche
in the world space exploration tendencies according to its real
capabilities.
2. To increase intensively financing of space activity, including
space-rocket branch upgrade.
3. To raise the priority of space research in Russian space policy,
the former being a locomotive of space activity and the guarantee of
progress in space technologies.
4. To impart to the manned program the commitment to escaping the
limits of near-Earth orbits.
5. To exclude duplication in development of heavy launch vehicles and
to start design of a super-heavy launch vehicle for escaping the limits
of near-Earth orbits.
6. To direct the state budget investments to the projects of promising
satellite systems of environment monitoring for providing vital activity
of mobile objects in all Terrestrial media, having excluded or reduced
financing of such unprofitable projects as GLONASS, "Luch", "Gonets",
"Arktika", etc.
7. To introduce the system approach in planning the space activity.
The latter should be accomplished within the framework of the unified
Federal Space Program (FSP) with included FTP "Development of electronic
componential base and radio electronics up to 2015". This FSP should
elaborate on the goals and tasks of Russian policy in the space activity
area for a particular time interval and make the development of
technological means attribute to them.
8. Technology exchange and joint projects should be put at the top of
international cooperation, rather than purchasing and selling in the
market of space services.
9. To find the ways of attracting the private capital to the space
activity commercialization.
10. To raise the popularity of space activity having simultaneously
excluded the promotion.
11. To exclude the customer-supplier dualism in functions for space
production.
12. To strengthen the management with specialists from the field of space
research and space means production; to restore the status of General
Designer based by S.P.Korolev.

We hope that the described statements will be taken in consideration in
official State Divisions.


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The invitation to the discussion