The AstroStat Slog

Earlier this year, Peter Edmonds showed me a press release that the Chandra folks were, at the time, considering putting out describing the possible identification of a Type Ia Supernova progenitor. What appeared to be an accreting white dwarf binary system could be discerned in 4-year old observations, coincident with the location of a supernova that went off in November 2007 (SN2007on). An amazing discovery, but there is a hitch.

And it is a statistical hitch, and involves two otherwise highly reliable and oft used methods giving contradictory answers at nearly the same significance level! Does this mean that the chances are actually 50-50? Really, we need a bona fide statistician to take a look and point out the errors of our ways.. Continue reading ‘Did they, or didn’t they?’ »

[arXiv:0709.3093v1] Short Timescale Coronal Variability in Capella (Kashyap & Posson-Brown)

We recently submitted that paper to AJ, and rather ironically, I did the analysis during the same time frame as this discussion was going on, about how astronomers cannot rely on repeating observations. Ironic because the result reported there hinges on the existence of small, but persistent signal that is found in repeated observations of the same source. Doubly ironic in fact, in that just as we were backing and forthing about cultural differences I seemed to have gone and done something completely contrary to my heritage! Continue reading ‘Betraying your heritage’ »