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Archive for December 2010
Here’s a cool illustration of how to use Bayesian analysis in the limit of very little data, when inferences are necessarily dominated by the prior. The question, via Tom Moertel, is: suppose I tell you that a coin always comes up heads, and you proceed to toss it and it does come up heads — how much more do you believe me now?
He also has the answer worked out in detail.
(h/t Doug Burke)
Andrew Gelman says,
Instead of “confidence interval,” let’s say “uncertainty interval”