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. .

. ..
« » ,





(, , , , , ...) - ( , , ) ( ) - - - ... ( , , , ...) - -


[IPCC, 2013]

,





- [%], ( MODIS) [Miralles et al., 2010] : 7 % [Miralles et al., 2010] 18% [Wang et al., 2007] - [%] ( ) [Schlesinger and Jasechko, 2014] : 61±15 %



- MODIS [Rechid et al., 2009]
0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2 0.3



- "" MODIS [Jin et al., 2002]

(1-6 - )




[Myhre and Myhre, 2008]
[/2]

[IPCC, 2013] 1750-2011 . 0.150.1 / ( 1.1-3.3 /2 )
2




[, , 2010]
: 1500-2100 . : 1) SRES 2, CH4, N2O, CFC11, CFC12, (MOZART-2.0) + 2) HYDE 3.1 LUH (MESSAGE, IMAGE, AIM, MiniCAM)


XX


[K]

( GISS)



-0.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 1





[/]

( UEA CRU)



-5

-3

-1

1

3

5


[Brovkin et al., 2006].

2000 .: - ( 0.14 - 0.25 )


L U C I D [ P it m a n et a l . , 2 0 0 9 ]






XXI (CMIP5) [Brovkin et al., 2013]
RC P 2. 6





R C P 8 .5

RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6


"-" ( " ") [Claussen, 2008]
EC H A M 3 - BI O M E1
"" " "

(6 . ..)

6 . ..











- : 2, CH4, , ... - : N2O, NOx, , ... - - ...




[IPCC, 2013]

: ()/ : ()

: : 2000- .



1) - Solubility pump (SP): 2 . - Biological pump (BP): 2 . , .. , . - 2 SP ( 2 ) - () ( ) ( 2 ) ( .. CO 2 ). 2) : - () CO2 ( ) . - () , a h ( .. CO2 ).




[IPCC, 2013]


[IPCC, 2013]
, q
CO2

1%/ 140 .

F - 2 U = t F(t) dt = U(q
CO2

, T g)

a) U / qCO

2

b) U / T

g




C2 [ ., 2008]
­ ­ , ( q CO2)
qCO2,
-1

SRES A2 875

-1

(90 -1)

SRES A1B 762 -1 (83 -1) SRES B2 669 SRES B1 615 .
-1

(69 -1) (67 -1)

-1





­ ­ , ( q CO2)
Tg, K SRES A2 3.38 K (0.31 K) SRES A1B 3.05 K (0.34 K) SRES B2 2.65 K (0.34 K) SRES B1 2.43 K (0.35 K) (CRU UEA)



~1/10




( )
f SRES A2 SRES A1B SRES B2 SRES B1

f = q

CO2

c

(t) / q

CO2

u

(t)

c ­ u ­ , ( qCO2)

CO2



CO -

2



qCO2, 1

MIT [Sokolov et al., 2008] ( 2)
Tg, K





C -- N -- q

CO2


[ K i r s c h ke et a l . , 2 0 1 3 ]




[ ., 2013]
, , . MIP5 ( 4, )
, 4/ RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 ( ) . [Bloom et al., 2010]





fq = pCH4 / pCH
4 u


CH4 10-20%.



fT = T

cpl g

/ T

ucpl g

(< 0.05 ).

. IMOGEN ( , )
RCP RCP RCP RCP 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5
: a = const

( 0.2 ). .

: a exp(- k Ea / R )


Tg qCO2
420 . [ ., 2005] 20 [Humlum et al., 2013]

Tg q

CO2

!

( ) Tg, 1850-2010 . [ ., 2012]
q
p= 0.6
CO2



p=0.15
.01 <0 p

T

p=0.00006
g

qCO2



p=0.07





·
· 0.20.2/2 (~10% ) 0.1-0.2 . · . · . · 2 ( ) ( ). () · 2. · ( ), . · qCO2 .





CO2 , 2000- . [Takahashi et al, 2009]
S,

2 [ -1 -1] ( [Weiss, 1974])

T, oC

2 [Le Quere et al., 2013]

1750-2011 . 155±30 [IPCC, 2013]




[Falkowski et al., 1998]
: 45 /; NPPoc; NPPoc 44-57 / [Carr et al., 2006].

/ 2



MODIS, 2001-2003 . [Ryu et al., 2012] -2 [ ] [ -2]

2 [Le Quere et al., 2013]

1750-2011 . 160±90 [IPCC, 2013]