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SUPER RATIO

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На этой странице будут собраны важнейшие, по мнению автора, идеи и мысли высказанные по проблеме существования внеземного разума

On this page I will present the most important (on my opinion) idea on Intellegence Life in the Universe

От составителя

Новые статьи по этой теме в "Русском переплете"

Игорь Гуревич О возможности сохранения Разума при космических и планетных катаклизмах Наука и культура, 24.IV.2006

Виктор Николаевич Тростников Научна ли "Научная картина мира"? Искания и размышления, 05.XII.2005

Игорь Гуревич О позноваемости сложных систем: Познаваема ли Вселенная? Наука и культура, 06.VII.2004

Александр Тутуков ЗВЕЗДЫ - ПЛАНЕТЫ - ЖИЗНЬ - ЦИВИЛИЗАЦИЯ Наука и культура 12.II.2004

Юрий Ефремов Пределы научного знания Наука и культура, 27.XI.2003

Вячеслав Шевченко О сигналах космоса Наука и культура, 27.V.2002

Алексей Старобинский Наука и религия - соперники или союзники? 22.III.2001

ВАЖНЫЕ РАБОТЫ ПО ТЕМЕ

Блаженный Августин, "Град Божий"

" Августин указал на то, что цивилизация прогрессирует, а мы помним, кто совершил то или иное деяние и кто что изобрел. Поэтому человечество, а значит, вероятно, и Вселенная, вряд ли очень долго существуют. Блаженный Августин считал приемлемой дату сотворения Вселенной, соответствующую книге "Бытия": приблизительно 5000-й год до нашей эры"

Дж.Бруно, "О множественности миров"

К.Э.Циолковский "Теория космических эр"

Циолковский удивительно глубоко чувствовал гигантскую пропасть между временем жизни Вселенной и возрастом нашей цивилизации. По его мнению за бесконечное время разум неизбежно захватывает каждый атом Вселенной.

Альберт Эйнштейн Из письма к Соловину

О чуде познаваемости мира

И.С.Шкловский "Уникальность..."

Пытаясь избежать парадокса отсутсвия "космических чудес" Шкловский выдвигает идею единственности разумной жизни.

А. и Б. Стругацкие "За миллиард лет до конца света"

Имеется фундаментальный закон природы препятствующий познанию. Эта повесть вдохновила И.С.Шкловского на идею о "Тупиковой ветви".

И.С.Шкловский "Тупиковая ветвь"

В этой работе Шкловский отказывается от гипотезы единственности и выдвигает идею тупиковой ветви. Цивилизации очень быстро проходят экспонентциальную технологическую стадию, погибают и не успевают увидеть друг друга. Причина гибели не формулируется.

В.М.Хлумов "Кулповский меморандум"

Выдвигается идея, что причиной гибели технологических цивлизаций является простота Вселенной. Разум в короткие (порядка 1000 лет)по астрономическим масштабам сроки познает Вселенную и лишенный "пищи ума" погибает. Достоинством этой идеи является ее универсальность.

В.Ф.Шварцман, "Поиск внеземных цивилизаций -- проблема астрофизики или культуры в целом?"

По мнению В.Ф.Шварцмана, контакт давно установлен - просто мы его не замечаем. Будущее цивилизации он видит в области игр и гуманитарной деятельности.

А.А.Старобинский, " Наука и религия - соперники или союзники?"

Один из лучших современных космологов, размышляя над соотношением науки и веры, выдвигает несколько важных соображений о множественности Вселенных и возможности воспроизведения их разумом


Статьи по теме - Papers

1

В.М.Липунов "НАУЧНО ОТКРЫВАЕМЫЙ БОГ"("Земля и Вселенная", N1, стр.37, 1995г.)

"On the problem of the Super Ratio in astrophysics"

V.M.Lipunov

Astroph. and Sp.Sci.,252, 73-81,1997

Доклад на конференции посвященной памяти И.С.Шкловского , С.А.Каплана и С.Б.Пикельнера

"К проблеме сверхразума в астрофизике"

2

GOD BEING SCIENTIFICALLY DISCOVERED

(Published in Russian Journal "Zemlya i Vselennaya", N1,p.37, 1995)

V.M. Lipunov

The Giant Silence of the Universe or the absence of "Space Miracles" is in an obvious contradiction with the fast evolution of our civilization. The most striking is the fact that both these phenomena, if taking separately, are in crying contradiction with "materialistic common sense" and are to be considered as real Space Miracle themselves. As a matter of fact, this is the main problem of the modern natural science. This crisis may be overcomed if we recognize Superintelligence, that is God which is discovered scientifically.


Introduction

Here I shall try to speak about the most important problem of the modern natural science, the problem which is undoubtedly, of more importance than discovery of Blacks Holes, creation of Grand Unification Theory or Artificial Intelligence. Moreover, this problem seems to be not only more profound and complicated but also much more urgent. In fact, if urgency implys the presence of any unexplained phenomenon being in contradiction with overwhelming scientific views, then solution of the enumerated above superfashionable problems is not nowadays of rigid experimental necessity (and will not in the nearest future). Now, at least in physics (from the physics of low temperatures to the high energy physics), there is no any experimental fact which needs Grand Unification Theory (GUT). There is no such experiment analogous to that of Michelson-Morley which created the new ideas on space and time. Moreover, such an experiment seems to be impossible in the nearest future (really, for testifying GUT an acceleration is required with an energy 10^27 eV., it is hardly may be expected in the next century).

Our Universe is still the unique experimental material, and the new branch of physics, Cosmomicrophysics, appeared mainly due to this fact (basically owing to efforts of Ya.B. Zel'dovich and his school). And here, for the first time during the history of natural science, we encounter an irreproducible experiment. A number of known universes equals to 1.

So, I want to say that in modern natural science there is an experimental fact quite inunderstood and paradoxical, being in crying contradiction with every modern orthodox picture of the world., this is the fact of absence of Supercivilizations, or "Silence of the Universe". Naturally, this fact has been discovered and realized previously. With the most acuteness it was realized in a post-mortal paper by I.S. Shklovskii [1] which, actually, appeared to be "the voice crying in a desert" (and seems to be still unknown at West at all). Generally speaking, the Shklovskii's interest to the problem of extraterrestrial intelligence and, especially, evolution of his views on this problem is rather instructive (from an optimistic search of "a needle in a haystack" to a problem about "awl in a sack"). And also instructive was the lack of comments from the side of scientific community to these ideas (one more paradox : "Silence of scientific community"). And this was in times when the paper advanced with a terrible creak and came out only owing to mortal illness of the author., and when there was a great interest for all forbidden and half-forbidden items. It is not surprising, after additional reflection. Indeed, humanity lived quiet normally for two thousand years in spite of the obvious discrepancy between visible motion of planets and theory of epicycles and deferents. And also, there is always a risk of "soiling" one's hands in so beaten by numerous UFOlogists and simply unprofessional persons field as Extraterrestrial Intelligence.

Fermi's Paradox

As for me, a paper by I.S. Shklovskii published in 1985 was of great impression. In this paper written, as always, in clear and witty language, Shklovskii formulated the problem of Extraterrestrial Intelligence. He was engaged in this problem almost all his life. But the most surprising is the fact that having passed the way from the early romanticism of 60's (the artificial creation of Fobos and Deimos) through the more realistic conception of uniqueness of life in the Universe (an absence of space miracles [2]), which engages the west scientists up to now [3,4], he came to the conclusion which could be obtained still before the space age and the programs of searches of extraterrestrial life!

Being impressed by this paper I wrote the note in the Soviet Astronomy Journal [5]. I obtained a simple estimate of contact probability and tried to formulate a strict scientific problem. As a matter of fact, the problem is reduced to the so called Fermi's paradox [6] which in modern language looks as follows:

there are two observational or, if you like, experimental facts: 1) the age of the Universe is T = 10^10 year, 2) a specific time t of exponential development for our civilization is of the order of some tens of years. For the sake of simplicity it san be adopted t = 100 years which is obviously overestimated. A gigantic dimensionless number arises characterizing the growth of a technological civilization over the time of existence of the Universe:

K = exp(T/t) ~ 10^43,000,000 (!)

It is enough to say that the theoretical physics never dealed with so great dimensionless numbers. For example, the full number of elementary particles in the Universe looks ridiculously small --- 10^80. Speaking nothing more, any theoretician having common sense must prick up his ears when hear such a number. On the contrary, from the experience of personal contacts I know this is not the case., theoreticians seem to lose their common sense abroad some line. Fermi himself exclaimed: "If there are anywhere space civilizations, their spaceships have been in the solar system long since" (I don't guarantee the exactness of the quotation). Naturally, this number is so gigantic that any unknown intermediate factors are unimportant. Really, it can be confirmed that probability of absence of "space miracles" in our Universe is 10^(-43,000,000), i.e. is equal to zero! Nevertheless, nobody has discovered them even after 20 years of searches. On the contrary, a Giant Silence of the Universe has been revealed. The world without miracles is incredible but it exists --- that is a paradox.

From Iosiph Shklovskii to Jordano Bruno, and backwards

How can Fermi's paradox be resolved in terms of modern scientific approach? In the middle of 70's Shklovskii formulated a conception of "Space Miracle" as a result of activity of Supercivilizations and proposed an idea of uniqueness of our civilization in the whole huge Universe [2]. If there are no "Space miracles" and "the Universe keeps silence" so there is no any Extraterrestrial Intelligence. That was an awful thought, especially for a man who was looking for artificial roots inside Mars' satellites. Neither for humanity the matters were much better. One of the most optimistic human ideas crashed down, the idea of multitude of the worlds. As was said by Ya.B. Zel'dovich in other connection, "What Jordano Bruno was burnt for?"

Is a hypothesis of uniqueness of Terrestrial Civilization so natural? Certainly, not. This hypothesis is in a crying contradiction with the observable uniformity and isotropy of the Universe consequent from the discovery of cosmic background radiation. A rise of only one civilization in the uniform and isotropic (on the whole) Universe, in a galaxy which is not distinguishes from others, near an ordinary yellow star, seems rather incredible. There are billions of such stars in our Galaxy. And the galaxies themselves, even more. Nevertheless, the probability that terrestrial life is unique, is not so small and cannot be compared to Fermi's paradox., so the question arises about the number of planetary systems, the Drake's formula appears, and so on. However the uniqueness hypothesis resets us at the anthropological point of view from which the physicists always try to keep further. Moreover, as will be shown below, this idea and connected calculations on the probability of appearance of life lose their actuality in the light of Tsiolkovskii's paradox.

Shklovskii himself, in his last paper rejected the idea of uniqueness and put forward even less consoling hypothesis of "deadlock branch". Let us see once more at the formula given above., the only possibility to get rid of this gigantic number is to suppose the time of exponential stage of the development of civilization much less than the time of existence of the Universe. In other words, Giant Silence of the Universe can be explained in assumption that technological supercivilizations don't arise at all. Why? At least, two answers may be proposed: because of loss of interest for the technological development or because of their destruction. Shklovskii chose the second variant, and he had his reasons for that (we don't notice yet any limit for technological development). Saying by words of Shklovskii, the Earth represents "a cemetery of species": biological estimates argue that about one billion species have evolved at the Earth from the beginning of life appearance, and now there are only two million. May be, an intellect is also some "hypertrophic" function (as a mass of a dinosaur's body) leading to an inevitable destruction? Thus an intellect may be only an unsuccessful invention of the nature, "a deadlock branch". What is a direct reason for destruction? An atomic war, an ecological catastrophe? It doesn't seem so. It is clear that in spite of all possible variety of specific "local conditions" the destruction of different civilizations must be due to the same, universal reason. What reason? An interesting possibility is discussed by V.Khlumov {7}. A common reason for destruction of an intelligence in the Universe can be connected with a loss of its main function, a function of cognition. His arguments look as follows.

Simple Universe

"The world is arranged in a simple manner,
it has been created by God.
Why to create a complicated thing
if a simple one can be made."
V.Khlumov, "Master of Smoke Rings"

What is intelligence or intelligent life? What is the purpose of its appearance among other creatures of nature? We shall not discuss in detail these questions. We shall restrict ourselves with the following simple thesis: an intelligent life try to understand and explain phenomena which happen around. It is important that interest and curiosly arising in this process are highly unstable. An interest to the phenomenon which has been understood vanishes practically instantly.When we discover a new law of nature we began at once to look for some new phenomena which are not subjected to this low. There are no such practical applications of old laws which would be more interesting than searching new ones. Various particular cases. new regimes, original approaches etc. being attractive as they could, all this is a pale shade of a real process of cognition. An intelligence is stunted without principally new, unexplained phenomena.

It is possible to perish from an atomic or biological bomb. But all this are childish toys compared with what could be invented by a civilization outstripping us, say, by some 200 years. Even nowadays in limits of natural laws discovered by us, one can imagine so powerful weapon which, once applied, could evoke consequences noticeable in a whole Galaxy. Such a "brother-murdering" war would be quite a space miracle. But miracles do not exist!

Forces which prevent to development of intelligence must be of quite other nature. And they, certainly, must be of universal character which doesn't depend on any specific conditions.

Earlier than we shall begin to describe a possible reason leading to destruction of an intelligence (its natural destruction), let us consider the following problem: why a human being, during the shortest time intervals (on a cosmological time-scale), has become successful in understanding the laws of nature acting in a whole observable Universe? Some two or three thousand years was enough to reach quantum mechanics and General Theory of relativity. How has a man whose every-day experience is limited by commonplace scales measured by metres, by velocities of some tens of million times smaller then the velocity of light, and by insignificantly small gravitational field, --- how has this weak being penetrated, without leaving a house, into huge space of the Universe and into the deepness of infinitely small elementary particles?

The ancient philosophers described the cognition process in the following manner. Let us imagine an infinite plane. A circle on the plane symbolizes the knowledge we have already attained. In the cognition process the circle increases and absorbs the previous knowledge., but also a boundary with unknown increases. Cognition yields more and more questions. The process is infinite.

This point of view is old as the world. Is not this too primitive generalization of our quickly passing experience? May an infinitely complicated object be indeed so simple? Rather no then yes. "A complexity" is, first of all, a qualitative characteristic, not quantitative one. An infinitely complicated object must consist of infinitely complicated, qualitatively different parts which are not under an obligation to be compatible. The world or, more correctly, a system of knowledge about the world is not a "matrioshka". If we have understood a part of this non-simple object we cannot be sure our knowledge will be entered into the next system of knowledge like a small "matrioshka" enters into a big one.

A process of cognition rather must be a strongly nonlinear one. An extreme, but not particular, case could be so strong non linearity that a comprehension of any part would be impossible without realization of a full picture. In other words, an infinitely complicated object cannot be comprehended in principle. An intelligence could not arise in an infinitely complicated universe!

A negative thesis expressed above as to incompatibility of subsequently comprehensible parts is in a crying contradiction with all our experience. All our experience cries that our world is something like "matrioshka". For example, the Newton's mechanics became a part of the special theory of relativity by Einstein which, in turn, became a part of the General Theory of Relativity. This is Bohr's compatibility principle.

How can we take away the obvious contradiction. There are two possibilities: whether our imagination of infinitely complicated object is incorrect or the surrounding world is not infinitely complicated. One can choose a correct answer only if he is based on observational facts...

Let us recollect: an intelligence without food perishes. And everything proves to be in its place. An experimentally proved absence of supercivilizations argues for the fact that our Universe is too simple for intelligence. Quickly (in some thousand years) an intelligent life comprehends all natural laws, exhausts all possibilities of its applications and perishes. This is a paradox but this is a fact: intelligence arises and perishes due to the same reason, that is, a simple structure of our world.

A Million Years of Stagnation or the End of the Golden Age

Certainly, an idea of world's simplicity although intrinsically consistent and quite corresponding to experience, is only a possibility. And is it really so necessary, the hypothesis of "a de