Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20151228.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 28 15:59:26 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:16 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: обвмадеойс нефептощи рпфплпч

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 21 - 28.12.2015 г.,
Forecast on 28.12.2015 - 03.01.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2171 (28,17.11.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W =36+7/-13 (Wn= 58+10/-6). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4-2 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE WAS BIG, HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED. IN THE LAST 21 - 24.12 FIVE SOLAR FLARES OF MIDDLE
CLASSES WERE OCCURENCE.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY 21 -24.12 WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND IN OTHER DAYS
- ON THE LOW LEVEL. THREE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS
DATA >16 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
21.12 0052 0103 >0111 N04E78L331 M2.8/ 1.9E-02 12472 II/1
21.12 1009 1019 >1032 N04E85L331 M1.1/1N 1.0E-02 12472
22.12 0315 0334 >0348 S23E75L331 M1.6/SF 2.1E-02 12473 IV/2
23.12 0023 0040 0107 S22E63l331 M4.7/1F 4.9E-02 12473 II/2 CME/0125
24.12 0149 0212 >0222 S21E50L331 M1.1/ 1.3E-02 12473

DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME
23.12 >1412 >0713 S12E57L320 9
23.12 >2250 >1513 S10E41L336 10
24.12 >1439 >0714 N09W29L033 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE DETERMINED BY AR12473, WHICCJNTINUES
THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUXES EMERGES, UNTIL IMPORTANT.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
--------------------------------------------------------------------
знак N конец Е конец S конец W конец ОКП R G ОБСЕРВАТОРИИ
CH - S35L057 S6JL340 Ps S37L061 18.12 >10 A SDO, SOHO...
CH + N85L329 N50L321 N30L004 N30L004 28-31.12 6 G0 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N85L295 N35L250 N15L308 N25L312 28-31.12 6 G0 SDO, SOHO...
The last two - parts of the huge CH which is gradually coming nearer
to a N-pole.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 14.12/1130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 29.12.

DECEMBER 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 DECEMBER
Wus 038 068 063 051 071 063 067
F10.7 122 130 134 133 126 117 110
Хbcg В6.7 В7.4 B5.2 B6.9 В4.9 B4.0 B3.3 GOES
Sp 500 790 910 880 880 620 560 msh
N 2 1 1
IMF - - - - - - - АСЕ
е>2 2.7Е+7 6.3Е+7 1.2Е+8 1.3Е+8 1.1E+8 8.9E+7 1.5Е+8 GOES
Ie>2 1545 1727 3889 4505 3732 3621 7792 pfu GOES
Ap 36 12 14 13 9 16 10 nT BOULDER
Dst -160 -52 -41 -25 -21 -25 -35 nT KIOTO
Amsc 27 11 14 11 8 16 8 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS WAS
BEGINNING AT 21.12/0515 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 21 - 28.12.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 29 - 31.12.

20 - 21.12 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE TO THE MODERATE MAGNETIC
STORM (G2, Ams= 49, dur.= 39 h.) TO IZMIRAN DATA. THIS GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE (the biggest in the current solar cycle BY Dst-index =
160 nT) WAS DEFINED BY A SERIES OF EEJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT 15-16.
12. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru