Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20151116.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 16 13:09:05 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:05 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: arp 220

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 09 - 15.11.2015,
Forecast on 16 - 123.11.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2170 (31,87.11.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL,
HOWEVER ON 12.11 FELL TO THE LOW. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)
WAS W =33+7/-16 (Wn=53+9/-25). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED 4-2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

THE MIDDLE AND TYE LOW LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX-
PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 9.11 WHEN IN SMALL SUNSPOT
GROUP AFTER LOCAL EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX EXPRESSED IN
INCREASE IN QUANTITY OF SPOTS THE SINGLE, BUT, DYNAMIC (R/BURST OF
TYPE II, CME) PROTON FLARE of CLASS M3.9/2B WAS OCCURENCE. AT VERY
LOW LEVEL OF FLARE ACTIVITY WAS 11 -12 AND 14-15.11, AND THE LOW -
IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST, WAS FOLLOWED BY FLARE OF THE CLASS
B8.1 AND CME. THE SECOND, WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY GEOEFFECTIVE,
REPRESENTED SOUTHWEST PART OF BIG ALMOST CIRCULAR FILAMENT IN THE
CENTRAL ZONE OF THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM
SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 18 CMEs, ONE OF TYPE II (angular
width 90 - 180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
11.11 1249 1312 >1510 S11E41L207 M3.9/2B 4.7E-02 12449 II/2 CME

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
11.11 <1330 >1734 N02W21L242 ~10 B8.1 12449 CME
15.11 2255 0140 S16W24L186 21 СМЕ
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N35L142 N33L141 N08L152 N12L167 18.11 2 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 1.11/19 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD, HOWEVER 12 - 14 SIGN OF SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 16.11.

NOVEMBER 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 NOVEMBER
Wus 067 065 064 029 050 048 063
F10.7 108 105 105 104 103 106 106
Хbcg В3.1 В3.1 B3.2 B2.6 В2.4 B2.2 B2.3 GOES
Sp 360 250 110 040 050 060 080 msh
N 1 2 1
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 2.8Е+8 6.0Е+8 2.0Е+9 1.8Е+9 1.6E+9 7.4E+7 1.3Е+8 GOES
Ie>2 17885 19551 59508 33937 88813 2734 2086 pfu GOES
Ap 27 39 24 5 14 9 8 nT BOULDER
Dst -46 -44 -29 -23 -23 -23 -11 nT KIOTO
Amsc - - 23 9 23 10 9 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINNING AT 04.11/1405 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 8 - 15.11.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 19 - 22.11.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EXCEPT 12, 14 AND 15.11 WAS ACTIVE. ACCOR-
DING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER THE FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams
=27, dur.= 18 h.) BEGAN 8.11 AND CONTINUED TO 9.11. THE SECOND MINOR
MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 33, dur. = 39 h.) BEGAN IN 6 HOURS AFTER THE
FIRST AND CONTINUED TO THE MIDDLE OF DAYS 11.11. DATA IZMIRAN FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE ABSENT. The FOLLOWING MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=34, dur.
=12 h.) IZMIRAN WAS REGISTERED, AND ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER
IT WAS A SUBSTORM (G0)LASTING 9 h. ALL THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS
HAPPENED WHEN THE EARTH PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND
FROM VERY BIG CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY OF THE NORTHERN HEMI-
SPHERE, ON WHICH DISTURBATIONS FROM FILAMENT EJECNIONS AND FLARES WERE
IMPOSED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED IN THE MAIN UNSETTLED
AND QUIET. ACTIVE CAN WAIT FOR THE CONDITION 18 - 19.11 WHEN THE EARTH
PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL OF THE HO-
LE OF NEGATIVE POLARITY OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN THE SAME TIME
DISTURBATION FROM EJECTION OF FILAMENT 15.11 HAS TO APPROACH THE EARTH.
PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 60%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru