Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20151005.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Oct 5 17:16:43 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:41 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2015 HAS MADE
Wsep. = 78.1,
THAT GIVES FOR 74 MONTHS (2015, MARCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*feb. = 86.6 - new system; 51.96 - old system;
W*march. = 82.7 - new system; 50.0 - old system;

- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 43 6.. 42 11.. 81 16.. 83 21.. 79 26..161
2.. 34 7.. 44 12.. 90 17.. 74 22.. 84 27..169М
3.. 29 8.. 42 13.. 83 18.. 70 23.. 95 28..154
4.. 38 9.. 59 14.. 54 19.. 63 24..100 29..117
5.. 26m 10.. 46 15.. 68 20.. 66 25..153 30.. 95

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, SEPTEMBER
Fsep. = 101.7

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, SEPTEMBER
Ap sep. = 15.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------


Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 28.09 - 04.10.2015,
Forecast on 05 - 12.10.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2168, 2169 (07,30.09; 04,57.10.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL,
DECREASING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND 4.10 BECAME LOW. ESTIMA-
TED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS Wn= 72+50/-55 (W old = 45+30/-34). ON THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 6 -1 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE (AR12422, S20
L106) AFTER 27.09 AND LEFT OF THE WESTERN LIMB 4.10, REMAINING BIG,
WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

THE LOW AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX-
PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERA-
GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+10/-30.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 28.09 AND 2.10, MIDDLE - 29.
09 - 1.10 AND THE LOW -3.10, THERE WERE 8 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OC-
CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS >35 CMEs, TWO WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular
width 90 - 180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
28.09 0345 0355 0359 S09W67L149 M3.6/SF 1.6E-2 12423
28.09 0720 0735 0758 S22W20L106 1N/M1.1 8.5E-3 12422
28.09 <1257 1318 1356 S22W24L106 1N/M1.1 1.3E-2 12422
28.09 1453 1458 >1503 S20W28L106 M7.6/ 2.8E-2 12422
29.08 0311 0316 0331 S08W78L149 M1.2/Sf 2.6E-3 12423
29.08 0341 0343 >0353 S20W36L106 Sf/M1.1 2.6E-4 12422
29.08 0505 0516 >0523 S21W37L106 M2.9/Sf 1.9E-2 12422
29.08 0533 0537 0549 S09W82L149 M1.2/Sf 2.6E-3 12423
29.08 0553 0556 >0604 S19W37L106 M1.0/ 1.6E-3 12422
29.08 0634 0643 >0646 S20W34L106 1N/M1.4 3.5E-3 12422
29.08 0846 0851 >0959 S10W77L149 M1.3/1N 6.7E-3 12423
29.08 1109 1115 1154 S21W37L106 M1.6/1B 6.1E-3 12422
29.08 1908 1924 1934 S20W36L106 1B/M1.1 1.2E-2 12422
30.09 1049 1059 >1113 S22W46L106 M1.3/1N 1.4E-2 12422
30.09 1314 1320 1328 S23W59L106 1N/M1.1 1.6E-3 12422
01.10 1303 1310 >1315 S23W64L106 M4.5/SN 1.5E-2 12422
02.10 0006 0013 >0032 S19W67L106 M5.5/1N 2.0E-2 12422
02.10 1219 1226 1231 S20W73L106 M1.0/ 4.1E-3 12422
02.10 1708 1718 1731 S19W76L106 M1.0/Sf 2.1E-3 12422
04.10 0234 0241 >0248 S18W79L106 M1.0/ 5.0E-3 12422
DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
28.09 >0945 2132 S25E51L019 5
28.09 2017 >0943 S07W67L137 8
29.09 1002 1145 N24E40L016 8
02.10 1720 2259 N28E02L015 5
02.10 1720 2259 N52E33L348 23
02.10 >0933 >1230 N46E27L350 14
02.10 >0933 >1230 N38E15L002 8
02.10 >1254 >0752 N52E47L330 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N25L346 S07L339 S15L011 S00L014 06.10 9 G1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 1.10/0030 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY ± EARTH HAS TO PASS
20.10.

SEPTEMBER 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 OCTOBER
Wus 120 125 078 073 058 047 018
F10.7 124 129 131 120 107 097 088
Хbcg C1.0 C1.2 C1.2 B8.6 B8.9 B5.3 B2.9 GOES
Sp 1050 1170 1090 950 670 480 150 msh
N 1
IMF - - - -/+ + + + АСЕ
е>2 2.0Е+7 2.5Е+6 3.3Е+6 6.7Е+6 1.3+6 7.6E+5 1.9E+6 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 3 6 3 12 16 13 24 nT BOULDER
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 5 7 5 15 13 10 18 nT IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NO
OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAIND ON UNSETTLED DURING PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET
IN ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 6-7 OCTOBER WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED
STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES. PROBABI-
LITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 60%.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru