Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150330.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 30 12:20:07 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:28 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 16 - 22.03.2015,
Forecast on 23 - 30.03.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2161 (27,93.03.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL ALL DAYS, GRADUALLY DECREASING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ES-
TIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W =062+14/-18. ON THE VISIBLE
DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8 - 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF
WHICH WAS AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT AC-
TIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED W = 030+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS
WERE OBSERVED 23 AND 27.03. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STE-
REO WERE OBSERVED > 38 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS "HALO" TYPE AND TWO
-"PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
23.03 1330 2231 S24Е42L014 12
27.03 ~13 ~15 ~N25E70L >30
http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=28&month=03&year=2015
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AT THE LOW AND THE
AVERAGE (IMPROBABLE) LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
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знак N конец Е конец S конец W конец ОКП R G ОБСЕРВАТОРИИ
СH + S16L086 S25L074 S27L078 S10L088 23.03 SDO, SOHO...
СH + N03L067 S05L062 S12L069 S08L075 24.03 SDO, SOHO...
CH - S35L352 S70L277 Ps S70L067 01.04 G1 SDO, SOHO...
СH + N49L270 N45L265 S15L315 S12L318 02.03 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
Last CH is result of three CH evolution of last solar rotation.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 26.03/1430 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. FROM 23/00 UT TILL 26.03 THE EARTH PASSED "+" SECTOR.
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 31.03.

MARCH 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MARCH
Wus 119 127 115 103 109 082 073
F10.7 126 133 138 136 138 146 145
Хbcg B4.7 B4.8 B5.4 B4.5 B5.0 B7.9 B9.1 GOES
Sp 540 580 650 590 600 580 450 msh
N 3 1 1 1 1
IMF -/+ + + +/- - - - АСЕ
е>2 2.1Е+8 3.0Е+8 1.9Е+8 1.3Е+8 1.0E+8 2.2E+7 6.0Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 7572 11608 4999 3959 4691 1221 467 pfu GOES
Ap 21 11 13 7 9 9 13 nT
Dst -45 -38 -40 -44 nT KIOTO
Amsc 25 12 12 10 10 13 11 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 18.03/1515 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON MARCH, 23 - 28.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA 23.03 ARE NOTED SUBSTORM G1-INTENSITY (dur.
=6 h.), AFTER WHICH IN 6 HOURS the MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS REGISTERED
(G1, Ams = 26, dur.= 12 h.). ACCORDING TO CENTRE IN BOULDER THIS DAY
TWO SUBSTORMS ARE REGISTERED by G1 AND G0-INTENSITY, DURATION 6 AND 3
HOURS. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND
QUIET: ON MARCH, 24-25 SEPARATE 3-HOUR SUBSTORMS (G0) WERE NOTED.

3-4 APRIL THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND
FROM EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES. THEREFORE THESE DAYS GROWTH OF GEOMAG-
NETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS ABOUT 40%.
IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND QUIET IS EXPECTED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru