Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20140922.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Sep 22 12:59:02 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:49:34 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: южная атлантическая аномалия

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 15 - 21.09.2014,
Forecast on 22 - 29.09.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2154, 2155 (21,46.08; 17,72.09.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL
PERIODE. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 050+5/-7. ON THE
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 7 SUNSPOTS GROUPS
ONE OF WHICH WAS A MIDDLE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTI-
VITY IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A MIDDLE LEVEL ON SEPTEMBER 18, AND THE LOW
LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 7 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT.
BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 38 CME, TWO
OF WHICH WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II".

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
18.09 0837 0841 >0853 N08E70L290 M1.2/SN 4.4E-03 12169

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
18.09 >0949 <2247 S15W21L008 17 12165
19.09 >0950 <2252 S29E50L284 19
19.09 >1116 <2252 N26W50L024 8
19.09 >1116 <0751 N14W73L047 20
19.09 2133 2234 N32E10L324 7
20.09 >0943 <2255 S17W15L335 11
20.09 2255 0142 N25E12L308 13
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND THEC SMALLER PROBABILI-
TY ON THE AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - S20L022 S40L002 S45L027 S30L032 18.09 1 SDO,SOHO....
CH - S02L274 S10L266 S12L274 S08L286 26.09 4 0 SDO,SOHO....
The last CH was formed ~ on July 1 - 5, 2014, an excellent task to
track process of CH appearance and evolution! ! ! !
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER 22.09/02 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BORDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
ON OCTOBER, 3.

SEPTEMBER 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 SEPTEMBER
Wus 092 085 091 075 091 075 072
F10.7 133 133 125 120 122 119 124
Хbcg B5.7 В5.5 В6.1 В5.3 В4.8 В4.3 В4.9 GOES
Sp 350 290 330 230 250 300 590 mvh
N 3 1 2
IMF - - - - - - - АСЕ
е>2 1.1E+5 1.1Е+5 2.8Е+4 4.4Е+4 2.7Е+4 2.5E+4 8.6E+4 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 3 6 7 8 23 5 6 nT Ар
Dst -37 nT KИOTO
Amsc 5 10 8 9 18 6 5 nT ИЗМИРАН
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluence e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NO OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 27.09 - 03.10.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSETTLED PRIOR TO THE BEGIN-
NING OF SEPTEMBER 19 WHEN ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, THE 9-HOUR
MAGNETIC SUBSTORM IS NOTED INTENSIVE (G1). ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THE
SUBSTORM HAD INTENSITY (G0) AND LASTED 6 HOURS. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAG-
NETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. AC-
TIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS 22 AND 24.09 WHEN TO THE EARTH DISTURBANCES
FROM SOLAR FIBLAMENTS EJECTIONS 18 AND 20.09 WILL COME IS POSSIBLE, AND
THE EARTH WILL BE CROSSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE LAST CORONAL HO-
LE. PROBABILITY OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 15%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru