Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120312.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 12 12:54:20 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:44:28 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: magnetic storm

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 11.03.2012,
Forecast on 12 - 19.03.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2121 (04,62.03.2012)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=059+6/-5. ON VI-
SIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY PRESENT FROM 5 TO 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS,
ONE OF WHICH WAS GREAT:
AR11429 (N18L299, Sp = 1270 m.v.h. at 7.03, X/3 + M/12) - IT AP-
PEARANCE FROM EASTERN LIMB 3.02. WITH AR11430 (N19L315, Sp = 200
m.v.h. at 7.03) IS A SET THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS. IMPORTANT
OF FLARE ACTIVITY STARTED MARCH, 4th AND TO 11.03 IN CAR OCCUREN-
CED X-RAY CLASS X - 3, CLASS M - 12 FLARES, 5 OF WHICH ARE LARGE.

NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT MARCH, 5, 7, 9 AND 10, MID-
DLE - 6.03 AND LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS
FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 48 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH
4 WERE TIPE "HALO" (5, 6, 7 AND 10.03) AND ONE WAS A TYPE "PARTIAL
HALO" II.
It is necessary to notice that the hindrances caused by very big
flux of solar protons (S3) on coronograph screens, didn't allow
while to define types of all significant coronal mass ejections.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X/opt. J/m-2
05.03 0230 0409 0643 N17E52L299 X1.1/2B 3.7E-1 11429 CME
05.03 1910 1916 >1921 N14E44L299 M2.1/1B 7.8E-3 11429
05.03 1924 1930 1950 N14E44L299 1B/M1.8 2.7E-3 11429
05.03 2226 2234 >2242 N14E42L299 M1.3/ 7.3E-3 11429
06.03 0022 0028 0039 N16E41L299 M1.3/SN 3.7E-3 11429
O6.03 0136 0144 >0150 N16E39L299 M1.2/ 5.9E-3 11429
06.03 0400 0405 0419 N16E39L299 1N/M1.0 2.6E-3 11429
06.03 0752 0755 >0800 M1.0/ 2.7E-3 11429
06.03 1223 1241 1328 N18E38L299 M2.1/1N 2.2E-2 11429
06.03 2104 2111 >2114 N16E41L299 M1.3/ 4.9E-3 11429
06.03 2249 2253 >2311 M1.0/ 9.7E-3 11429
07.03 0000 0024 0349 N17E27L299 X5.4/3B 6.7E-1 11429 II/2 IV/2 CME
07.03 0105 0114 0130 N22E12L299 X1.3/SF 1.5E-1 11430 II/2
09.03 0322 0353 0618 N15W08L299 M6.3/SF 1.3E-3 11429 II/2 IV/1 CME
10.03 1715 1744 >1830 N17W24L299 M8.4/ 2.6E-1 11429 IV/2 CME
DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME
c/p local. - central part localization
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N37L017 N36L012 N28L025 N31L027 06.03 1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S15L012 S33L315 S50L317 S17L017 07.03 4 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH - N16L232 S02L222 S21L239 S02L242 16.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 9.03/05 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /-+ THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS 13.03.

MARCH 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 MARCH
Wus 105 109 102 086 096 089 103
F10.7 132 138 136 140 146 149 131
Хbcg С1.0 В7.7 С1.1 В6.5 В8.8 В7.0 В5.6 GOES
Sp 1240 1540 1800 1330 1240 1120 1260
Nnew 1 1 2
IMF - - -/+/- - + /- + + ACE
е>2 5.8Е+7 2.3Е+7 2.9E+7 1.9Е+8 1.4Е+7 2.5Е+8 5.9Е+8 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 8 8 42 26 71 18 6 Ар
Dst -35 -35 -78 -44 -139 -79 -59 КIOTO
Amsc 11 13 34 19 47 17 10 IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------

A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY
04/1800 UT AND CONTINUED TO BE ENHANCED BY THE END OF THE REPOR-
TING PERIOD.
Pr >10 MeV: 5.03/0500 UT, МАКСИМУМ 6530 p.f.u. 05/1540;
Pr >100 MeV: 5/0405 UT, МАКСИМУМ 69 p.f.u., te - 10/1650 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT MARCH, 5 - 8 AND 10 - 11.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT
MARCH, 12 - 13 AND 17 - 18.

TERMS OF MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=34, dur.=21 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN
AND (G2, Ams = 56, dur.= 18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER
OBSERVED MARCH, 7. SINCE MID-MARCH 8 DAY AGAIN OBSERVED MAGNETIC
STORM (G2, Ams = 67, dur. = 33 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G3,
Ams=63, dur.=36 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER. THESE GEO-
MAGNETIC STORM ARE THE RESULT OF FLARE EVENTS 5 AND 7 MARCH. MARCH
10, GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS BEEN ACTIVE, AND IN OTHER DAYS-UNSETTLED
AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK MARCH, 12 IN ENVIRONMENT WILL COME THE DISTURBANCE FROM
LARGE SOLAR FLARE OF MARCH 10. WITH A PROBABILITY OF 70% CAN EXPECT
MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM. MARCH, 16 THE EARTH WILL BE PASS HIGHSPEED
STREAM FROM LARGE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF MAG-
NETIC STORM AT LEAST 40%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL
UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK AT MARCH, 7 THE EARTH WILL GET UNDER BLOW OF THE LARGE FAST
CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM FLARE X-RAY CLASS Х1.1 5.03. WITH PROBABI-
LITY OF 70% IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXPECT THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM. GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITIONS OF NEXT DAYS WILL DEPEND ON REALIZATION OF GEOEF-
FECTIVE FLARES OF SUNSPOT GROUP AR11429.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru