Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110905.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Sep 5 18:46:54 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:27 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: arp 220

------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2011 HAS MADE
Waug.= 50.6,
THAT GIVES FOR 26 MONTH (2011, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*feb.= 33.4
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013
(Date of approach of a maximum of a current cycle close to a reality can
be defined only after 18 - 24 months of its development).

THE MAXIMUM OF 23 SOLAR CYCLE HAS COME IN APRIL 2000 WITH VALUE
OF THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY WOLF'S NUMBER - W*= 120.7
SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE CYCLE IS NOTED IN NOVEMBER 2001 - W*= 115.6
MAXIMUM OF THE RADIO EMISSION ON 10 cm FLUX - F*= 197.2
HAS COME IN FEBRUARY 2002.
THE OF THE 23 CYCLE MINIMUM - DECEMBER 2008 with W*=1.7.
The most probable height according to all available information will make
current 24 cycles of solar activity Wmax = 50 - 70.
Possible specifications after 28 months of development of a cycle (on the
smoothed values of relative Wolf number).

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011,
AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 71 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE
1.. 82 6.. 61 11.. 29 16.. 24 21.. 56 26.. 66 31.. 96М
2.. 73 7.. 61 12.. 22 17.. 39 22.. 71 27.. 59
3.. 62 8.. 54 13.. 14 18.. 45 23.. 75 28.. 49
4.. 71 9.. 47 14.. 0м 19.. 46 24.. 54 29.. 43
5.. 68 10.. 28 15.. 9 20.. 45 25.. 50 30.. 69

THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, AUGUST
F*aug. = 101.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.08 - 04.09.2011,
Forecast on 05 - 12.09.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2114 (26,45.08.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE
CONFIDENT AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=047+11/-9.
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE ARE FROM 4 TO 8 SUNSPOT
GROUPS, ALL SMALL.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=050+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN MIDDLE LEVEL 4 SEPTEMBER WHEN NEAR TO WESTERN
LIMB THERE WAS A FLARE X-RAY CLASS М3.2, AND A LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS.
SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 52 CME FROM WHICH 3 WERE TYPE PARTIAL
HALO II (SEPTEMBER, 03, 04).

---------------------------------------------------------------------
to tm te localization Class Е(1-8A) АR RII/IV CME
X-ray opt. J/m-2
4.09 1121 1145 >1150 N18W84L304 M3.2/ 1.8E-2 11286 CME/1212
to te central part localization l в град. Fl AR CME
DSF 02/ 0554 S18E42L212 ? CME/0748
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S10L258 S17L253 S28L258 S20L268 04.09 6 KP,SDO,SOHO...
Given CH it was transformed from a gulf subpolar CH 4 solar rotations back.
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 2.09/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS ON 06.09.

AUGUST 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 SEPTEMBER
Wus 066 089 121 119 103 139 114
F10.7 101 101 109 112 115 119 119
Хbcg B2.9 B2.4 B2.6 B2.9 B3.3 B4.9 В6.3 GOES
Sp 195 230 450 590 650 580 540
Nnew 3 1 2
IMF - - - - - /+ + + ACE
е>2 1.9Е+6 2.7Е+6 3.3Е+6 3.7Е+6 3.0E+6 1.0Е+6 2.7Е+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 10 3 6 4 3 4 6 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 9 3 2 3 7 9 13 IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED
on 5 - 9 SEPTEMBER.

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru