Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110627.en.txt
Дата изменения: Mon Jun 27 18:03:29 2011
Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:04 2016
Кодировка: koi8-r
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 20 - 26.06.2011,
Forecast on 27.06 - 03.07.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2111, 2112 (05,83.06 - 03,01.07.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD TO 26 JUNE WAS AT THE MIDDLE
LEVEL, THEN ON LOW. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD HAS MADE W = 028+9/-12. ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OF SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK A LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LOW AND BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE MOST LIKELY THE CALCULATED WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
PERIOD W=030+10/-10.

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW ONLY JUNE 21, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER
DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH FOR THE PERIOD ARE REGISTRED 34 CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS FROM THEM 2 TYPES "PARTIAL HALO II" (TO 180 deg.) AT 20.06
AND (up to 270 deg.) AT 21.06.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
to tm te location Class Е(1-8A) АR Radio II/IV CME Pr
X-ray оp J/m-2
to te коорд.центра l в град. Fl AО CME
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK FOR LAST WEEK WERE OBSERVED NEXT CORONAL HOLES:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
СН - N60L030 N50L020 N17L062 N23L065 1-2.07 2 KP, SDO, SOHO.....
This coronal hole - bay of subpolar coronal hole.
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

JUNE 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 JUNE
Wus 043 057 044 047 062 047 026
F10.7 096 095 093 096 096 094 090
Хbcg B2.1 B2.1 B1.5 B1.7 B1.6 B1.7 В1.6 GOES
Sp 250 210 160 210 280 105 040
Nnew 2 1
IMF - + /- - - - - - ACE
е>2 3.1Е+6 4.0Е+6 8.8Е+6 3.0E+7 1.5Е+8 3.8Е+8 2.5Е+8 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 7 10 12 17 10 6 6 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 9 11 13 14 13 10 11 IZMIRAN
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE
THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 23/1455 UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED
24-26.06.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED
27 - 30.06.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED THE WHOLE PERIOD ON IZMIRAN DATA,
BUT ACCORDING TO WESTERN HEMISPHERE GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES MINOR
MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 24, dur.= 12 hours) WAS RECORDED AT NIGHT, 22
-23 MAY, AS A RESULT OF EARTH's PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR
WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WHICH IN THE
PREVIOUS ROTATION HAS CAUSED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM. IN THE ENVIRONEMENT
SPACE OBSERVED SUDDEN IMPULSE - 17/0244 UT, BUT ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
BARELY AFFECTED.

NEXT WEEK ON JULY, 1-2 EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR
WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NOTHERN HEMISPHERE WHICH IN THE PREVIOUS
ROTATION HAS CAUSED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC
STORM 1-2.07 ORDER OF 60 %. IN OTHER DAYS IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND
UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA
http://www.izmiran.ru
WDC STP MOSCOW